[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 02 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N16W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W, to 02N29W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S42W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in
disorganized clusters of precipitation, are from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in south Florida, along 26N/27N, and
continuing into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. The front
becomes dissipating stationary, from 27N85W, northwestward, to
SE Louisiana. The front is stationary in the southern sections
of Louisiana, to a warm front in east Texas. An organized
frontal boundary is inland in Texas, including a 1006 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N99W. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is vertically stacked on top of the surface
low pressure center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Texas
and Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W westward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 24N to 26N
between 96W and 98W in the coastal plains and the coastal waters
of Mexico. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 26N northward between 90W and 96W. Isolated
moderate is from 26N southward from 88W eastward. Numerous
strong is from 17N to 20N between 95W and 97W, in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

Areas of smoke and haze, due to ongoing agricultural fires in
parts of Central America and Mexico,
still are apparent in satellite imagery, from 15N to 20N between
84W and 97W from the NW Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the visibilities may be
reduced in those areas.

A weakening frontal boundary in the western Gulf of Mexico will
dissipate on Sunday, as it shifts northward and inland.
Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
in the NW Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday, then shift to the
north central Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. It is possible
that a few of the storms off the coast of Louisiana may be
strong to severe, with gusty winds. Areas of smoke and haze are
possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early
next week in much of the basin. A weak cold front will sink
slowly into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening, and reach
SE Louisiana to the W Bay of Campeche on Wednesday night, before
stalling and
weakening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, within 250 nm on either side of the line that runs from
21N61N 17N67W 16N72W 16N80W 16N89W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through the
border of Panama and Colombia, beyond southern Panama, and into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is
along the border of Colombia and Venezuela from 09N to 10N
between 73W and 74W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, are elsewhere in Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest
concentration of clouds and possible precipitation is from 80W
eastward.

Six foot sea heights are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak high pressure ridge extends from the central Atlantic
Ocean, W-SW, to the N Bahamas. Fresh E to SE winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday, before increasing to
fresh to strong, from Sunday night through Wednesday night, as
the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and lower pressures in Central America. Gentle to moderate winds
will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sunday,
becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean Sea
throughout the coming week. Areas of smoke and haze are possible
in the SW Gulf of Honduras, from agricultural fires in Central
America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N59W to 28N68W, to 28N73W, and to
the coast of SE Florida near 26N/27N. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are within 360 nm to the SE and S of the cold front, and within
180 nm to the N and NW of the cold front. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
northwest of the cold front.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N43W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
360 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate is
within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is about 390 nm to the NE of the
upper level cyclonic center, near 30N38W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from the 31N59W-to-28N68W cold front eastward.

A weakening cold front from 28N65W to 28N73W to near Jupiter in
Florida, will drift southward tonight across the waters that are
to the E of the Bahamas, and stall along 28N on Sunday morning.
The frontal remnants will then drift N and gradually dissipate
late on Sunday. S of the front a weak high pressure ridge
extends from the central Atlantic Ocean, W-SW, into the NW
Bahamas, and will persist to the east of the area through
Sunday. High pressure will reorganize across the W Atlantic
Ocean on Monday and Tuesday, leading to moderate to fresh
southerly winds N of 25N and W of 75W, and moderate to fresh
tradewinds S of 24N.

$$
mt/ah
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