[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N20W TO 03N35W. The ITCZ continues from 03N35W to 02N42W to
01S47W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted from 01S-05N between 18W-29W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 01S-06N between
10W-36W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04S-08N
between 36W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is oriented E-W from the big bend of
Florida to 28.5N93W. A surface trough continues from 28.5N93W SW
to 25N97W. Numerous moderate convection is seen north of 26N and
west of 95W, including over southeast Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 22N-26N and west of 96W. A 1018 mb surface
high pressure is centered near 27N87W. Gentle winds are over the
NE Gulf near the high pressure. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere,
although some fresh winds are likely occurring NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Fresh NE to E winds are also possible along and north
of the front near the coasts of Louisiana and upper Texas. Seas
are 3-5 ft over the SW half of the Gulf and 1-3 ft over the NE
Gulf. Areas of smoke were observed across the southwest Gulf
south of 23N due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of
Central America and Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may
occasionally reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface trough will remain over the NW Gulf
through today. The stationary front will move northward as a weak
warm front tonight into Sun morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue near the trough and front over the NW
Gulf through early Sun. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh
southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of
the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front could reach the Texas
coast early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air in the low to mid levels
over the central and western Caribbean. This is due to mid-level
ridging, which is causing subsidence. A sharp upper trough
persists from over the central Atlantic to the Mona Passage to
northeast Nicaragua. This is also acting to suppress showers along
and NW of the upper trough axis. However, some showers are
occurring SE of the upper-trough axis, between the ABC Islands and
the Leeward Islands. Patchy areas of smoke are possible in the
northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to ongoing
agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This smoke
and associated haze may reduce visibilities.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and lower pressure inland over Mexico is tight enough to
support fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras. However, the
high pressure is weak enough that gentle to moderate trade winds
are noted elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to
strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across
most of the Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N77W to St. Augustine Florida. A
few showers are near the front. A ridge extends from 1022 mb high
pressure near 32N28W to 1022 mb high pressure near 29N36W to 1018
mb high pressure near 25N62W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh
SW to W winds are evident north of 28N west of 65W, and SE of the
stationary front, with 4 to 7 ft seas in the area. Moderate to
fresh E winds are also possible off the N coast of Hispaniola,
but generally light to gentle breezes persist across the
subtropical Atlantic within a few hundred nm of the surface ridge
axis. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere in open waters west of 65W.
Farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates north of 20N. Fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds are noted off the northwest coast
of Africa, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds are south of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front from 31N77W to St.
Augustine Florida will move southeastward as a cold front and
extend from 31N70W to Daytona Beach Florida later this morning,
then from 31N60W to 28N70W to Stuart, Florida this evening. The
front will stall and weaken early Sun west of 65W and dissipate
late Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the vicinity of
the front today north of 29N. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to
moderate southerly winds east of Florida. For the forecast in the
far eastern Atlantic, expect N winds offshore of Morocco to
increase to strong to near gale force this afternoon and persist
through the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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