[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A late season and strong cold front
will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon and move quickly
across the entire basin through Thu. Behind the front, strong to
near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the
northern and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force
offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight
through Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico,
Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the
range of 9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. This cold front
will also bring a relief of the summer like temperatures in south
Florida this upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish across the region
Fri and Sat.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains over
the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the
Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore
of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times
during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions
are expected to continue through Thu morning. Wave heights are
forecast to peak around 13 to 14 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
N of the ITCZ axis W of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico, near
the coast of Mexico due to strong cold front forecast to move
across the Gulf waters. A Gale Warning is also in effect for
frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern
Texas to the western panhandle of Florida where gusty winds of
40-45 kt are expected. Please, see the Special Feature section for
more details.

A weak ridge dominate the Gulf waters producing fresh E-SE winds
in the Straits of Florida based on recent satellite derived winds,
and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the basin based on altimeter data.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Please, see the Special Feature section for
more details.

A recent scatterometer pass shows a large area of 30 kt winds
near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong winds across the
central Caribbean, including the waters just south of Hispaniola.
An area of NE-E winds of 25 kt is noted near Cabo Beata, Dominican
Republic. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern Caribbean
with gentle to moderate winds over the NW part of the basin.
Currently, seas range from 9-12 ft in the south-central to SW
Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

High pressure across the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri morning,
with winds pulsing to gale-force at night near the coast of
Colombia into early Thu morning. Fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
winds are possible in the Windward Passage through Thu morning.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is seen across
the basin with low cloud streamers in the lee side of the Lesser
Antilles.

A relatively strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
afternoon and move across the NW Caribbean Thu night followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds. Seas are forecast to build to
8-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. The front will reach
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Fri, and from eastern
Cuba to the coast of NE Honduras by Sat morning. Expect fresh to
strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by
late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W than extends
westward to near 29N50W to 30N62W. A band of mainly low clouds
with possible showers is associated with the front. Another cold
front crosses the Canary Islands and extends SW to near 22N25W
where a shearline continues to 20N45W. A strong 1004 mb low
pressure system is centered to the NW of the Madeira Islands near
35N19W, with fresh to strong winds depicted in scatterometer data
in the south semicircle of the low, north of 29N between 16W and
22W. The low in the eastern Atlantic will shift northeastward and
weaken through Thu.

High pressure will prevail north of 32N through Thu morning. A
cold front will move east of northern Florida early Thu morning,
extend from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected in the wake of the front.

$$
GR
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