[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261722 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021

Updated for Caribbean Sea Gale Warning Special Feature

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A deepening 1008 mb low
pressure is just north of the Canary Islands near 31N17W. This low
is expected to move across the Meteo-France High Seas area of
Madeira today into tonight. A gale warning is in effect through
2100 UTC today, mainly for frequent gusts. Expect seas of 10-13
ft  this weekend north of 27N and east of 25W, due to this
system. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/_bulletin/grandlarge/_metarea2

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean sea between high pressure ridging north
of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia will
support pulsing winds to gale force during the overnight into
the early morning hours for the next couple of days. Seas will
build to around 12 ft during these winds. For more details,
refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
05N08W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 03S30W to
00N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm north of the
ITCZ between 17W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalling and weak cold front extends from near New Orleans,
Louisiana off the south-central coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to
the northwest Gulf near 25.5N94.5W. The southern portion of the
front has dissipated to a remnant trough, continuing from
25.5N94.5W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Areas of rain are
possible on either side of the front and trough within 60 nm. A
ridge of high pressure reaches from the Southwest North Atlantic
to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to locally fresh return
flow is noted east of the front and trough, along with seas of 4-7
ft. Mainly moderate winds are noted west of the boundaries along
with 4-6 ft seas.

The weak frontal boundary over the western Gulf will dissipate on
Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop north of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight and shift westward to the south-central
Gulf on Sat while expanding in coverage. A new cold front is
expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sun morning,
reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Mon, become
stationary Tue morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front
on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on a Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea.

A tight pressure gradient is across the western and central
portions of the basin with fresh to strong winds noted in the
Gulf of Honduras, through the approach to the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola, with fresh to near gale force winds
elsewhere in the central Caribbean outside of the gale warning,
the strongest northwest of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-12 ft in the
central Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 6-9 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras. Typical isolated to widely scattered
showers on the trade wind flow will be possible this afternoon.

High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic will
continue through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist
in the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with the highest
near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will expand in coverage this weekend to include the rest
of the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A 1027 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging
across the western Atlantic, with gentle winds north of 26N
between 56W-72W, and moderate to locally fresh trades near the
Greater Antilles, across the Bahamas, and offshore of northern
Florida. Seas of 4-6 ft and fair weather conditions prevail
across most of the western Atlantic, except for a few isolated
showers east of the central Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed
from 31N57W to 23N60W, with isolated showers associated with the
feature. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
east of the trough, north of 20N between 53W-57W, associated with
a mid-upper level trough.

A 1034 mb high pressure centered near 25N38W extends ridging
southward across the open central tropical Atlantic waters. Mainly
fresh to locally strong trades prevail across this area per recent
scatterometer data, with seas of 7-11 ft.

Ridging will change little through the weekend. A cold front will
move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night, reach from near
31N73W to northern Florida early on Mon, then become stationary
and weaken along 30N from Mon through Tue night. The frontal
remnants may form into a trough offshore the northeast Florida
coast on Mon, and lift northward as a developing low pressure to
along the southeastern U.S. coast through late Tue. Moderate to
fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the highest
winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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