[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261015 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03S34W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
04N between 16W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico
from 30N93W in SW Louisiana to 20N97W near Veracruz in southern
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed along 91W/92W south of 23N
into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data earlier
this morning showed fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the trough
and stationary front, south of 25N in the south-central Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Gulf, 6 to 8 ft in the
central Gulf, and 3-6 ft in the western Gulf. Satellite imagery
shows isolated shower activity along the frontal boundary.

The stationary front will gradually weaken through tonight. SE
winds ahead of the front, north of the Yucatan peninsula, will
diminish today. A cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of
Campeche on Monday, become stationary Tuesday morning, then lift
northward as a weak warm front Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data earlier this morning showed fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the central Caribbean Sea. High pressure
north of the region is enhancing trade winds in this particular
region. Highest winds to 30 kt were observed north of Honduras
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8-11 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, 7 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere across the basin. Satellite imagery indicates isolated
shower activity across the region, embedded in the large scale
trade wind flow.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure
over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across
the south-central Caribbean the next several day, with highest
winds near the coast of Colombia at night through Tuesday night.
Maximum  seas will build to 10-12 ft during each period of near-
gale force winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in
coverage this weekend to include the rest of the east-central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will continue in the
Gulf of Honduras through early Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging
across the western Atlantic, with gentle winds north of 24N
between 58W-78W and moderate to locally fresh trades near the
Greater Antilles. Seas of 4-5 ft and fair weather conditions
prevail across most of the western Atlantic. A surface trough is
analyzed from 31N58W to 24N60W, with isolated showers associated
with the feature. In the east Atlantic, a 1012 mb low pressure
is just north of the Canary Islands near 30N17W. This low is
expected to deepen and moves northward. Gale force winds are
expected to develop this morning near the Madeira Islands in
association with this low. Expect seas of 10-13 ft this weekend
north of 27N and east of 25W, due to this system.

High pressure will prevail across the northern waters through
Sunday. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Sunday night, reach from 31N74W to northern Florida on Monday,
then stall and weaken along 30N on Tuesday. Moderate to fresh
winds will continue south of the ridge, with the highest winds
expected near the Windward Passage into early next week.

$$
Mundell
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