[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 05N18W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to
02S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
07S-08N, east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging protrudes into the NE Gulf of Mexico from
the SE United States, while a weak low and surface trough are
over South Florida. Gentle winds are resulting from this weak
flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of 86W, according to
the latest ASCAT data pass. Much lower pressure is located over
central Texas and eastern Mexico. This pressure gradient is
resulting in fresh to strong SE to S return flow over the
western and central Gulf of Mexico, where latest buoy
observations indicate seas of 5 to 6 ft. Cloudiness and light
scattered showers are seen currently extending off the Texas and
western Louisiana coasts. Light smoke is evident across the far
western Gulf due to agricultural fires in Mexico.

Expect a continuation of fresh to strong winds over the central
and western Gulf through mid-week as a similar synoptic setup
persists. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on
Thu, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The earlier front over the NW Caribbean has dissipated. A 1017
mb high pressure is centered over Cuba near 22.5N81W at 0300
UTC. Dry air is seen over the NW Caribbean on GOES-16 mid-level
water vapor imagery. Isolated showers are evident near Haiti and
eastern Cuba, as well as the far SW Caribbean. The latest ASCAT
data pass shows gentle winds in the northern Caribbean, north of
16N between 63W-84W. Fresh trades are over the southern
Caribbean south of 14.5N, and in the western Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern
Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the southern Caribbean, except up to 7
ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
Atlantic through late this week. Fresh to strong winds will
persist over the south-central Caribbean, and near gale-force
winds could pulse near the coast of Colombia Thu night into this
weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic is
supporting a well defined 1009 mb low pressure off the Carolina
coast near 32.5N76.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active north of 27N between 68W-75W along an associated
weakening stationary front from 31N73W to the central Bahamas.
The latest ASCAT data pass indicates fresh to strong NE winds
off the coast of northeast Florida north of 30N, part of a low
level jet of strong NE winds funneling between the low pressure
and the coast. Mostly gentle winds are south of 29N and west of
66W across the western Atlantic. Seas are likely 8 to 12 ft off
the northeast coast of Florida and 5 to 7 ft in the open waters
west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N37W to
31N40W to 31N50W, then stationary to 32N57W. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are within 180 nm N of the front. Broad ridging
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic south of 30N east of
55W. Fresh northerly winds are east of the Canary Islands off
the coast of Africa, with moderate trade winds elsewhere, and
seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast area west of 65W, rough seas in NE swell will
persist N of 29N and W of 77W through early this morning as a
low pressure trough lingers off the Florida coast. Elsewhere,
the weakening stationary front that extends from near 31N73W to
the central Bahamas will dissipate early this morning. A high
pressure ridge will build westward across the Atlantic through
midweek and persist into this weekend. For the forecast in the
eastern Atlantic, low pressure may form near the Canary Islands
late in the week, increasing winds and seas north of 25N and
east of 30W into the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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