[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 05N18W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to
01S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
00N-05N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered over the
Tennessee Valley through the southeast Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough extends into the ridge from 1013 mb low pressure along the
Carolina coast through South Florida to the far southeast Gulf.
Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the
eastern Gulf. Moderate SE to S winds are noted across the
western Gulf between the ridge and a complex 1000 mb low pressure
area moving into the Southern Plains. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the
southwest Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft in the northwest Gulf. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. Light smoke
is evident across the far western Gulf due to agricultural fires
in Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge building over the
eastern Gulf and persistent low pressure near the coast of
Mexico will support increasing SE winds and building seas over
the western and central Gulf through midweek. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, then stall and weaken
over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The end of a stationary front extends across central Cuba toward
Cayman Brac. The southern end of a surface ridge extends into
the northwest Caribbean behind the front. Light to gentle winds
are evident across the northwest Caribbean, except for moderate
eastern winds funneling along the coast of Honduras. Seas are 1
to 3 ft across the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade
winds persist along the coast of northeast Colombia and northwest
Venezuela, with 5 to 7 ft seas currently. This is between broad
ridging across the western Atlantic and lower pressure and higher
terrain along the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident. A few
showers are active in the trade wind flow across the Windward
Islands and the far southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to build over
the western Atlantic through late this week. Fresh to strong
winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, and near
gale- force winds could pulse near the coast of Colombia Thu
night into this weekend. Expect increasing winds and building
seas over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras, from Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level trough is moving off the southeast coast of
the U.S. and is supporting a well defined 1013 mb low pressure
off the Carolina coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along an associated cold front from 31N73W to central
Cuba. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 1530 UTC
indicated fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of northeast
Florida, part of a low level jet of strong NE winds funneling
between the low pressure and the coast. Mostly gentle to
moderate westerly winds south of the low pressure and west of the
cold front. Seas likely 8 to 12 ft off the northeast coast of
Florida and 5 to 7 ft in the open waters west of 55W. Broad
ridging dominates remainder of the Atlantic south of 31N farther
east. Fresh northerly winds off the coast of Africa, with
moderate trade winds elsewhere, and seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast for the area west of 65W, rough seas in NE
swell will persist north of 29N and west of 77W through tonight
as a low pressure trough lingers off the Florida coast.
Elsewhere, the weakening cold front from 31N73W across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba will dissipate tonight. A high
pressure ridge will build westward across area north of 27N
through midweek and persist into this weekend.

$$
Christensen
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