[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean gale warning...The pressure gradient between
high pressure across the NE United States and low pressure
centered north of the Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale
winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 30N through tonight.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 10N14W
to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to 02S40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 05S between 1W to
17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Cuba near 23N81W NW to 25N86W
to Louisiana offshore waters near 27N89W. Layered microwave and
water vapor imagery continue to show very dry air across most of
the basin, which is supporting the lack of deep convection in the
vicinity of the front. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
to the N of this front E of 87W and over the north-central offshore
waters with seas to 4 ft. Light and gentle winds are elsewhere.

The cold front will dissipate as it moves southward through
tonight. High pressure building behind the front over the
northeast Gulf will support increased E to SE winds and building
seas over the western Gulf Mon, then over the central Gulf Tue and
Wed as a cold front moves through Texas. The front will move into
the northwest Gulf Thu and stall from the north central Gulf
coast to the southwest Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low-level layered precipitable water imagery show several patches
of shallow moisture across the basin, which are supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms across the Mona passage,
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Gulf of
Honduras. Very dry air is noted elsewhere in the low and middle
level water vapor imagery as well as low-level microwave imagery.
With high pressure prevailing N of the region, moderate to locally
fresh winds also prevail across the eastern half of the basin and
portions of the SW Caribbean with seas to 6 ft. Locally strong
winds are along the coast of Colombia with seas to 8 ft extending
offshore.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid week,
allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, and
increasing winds and building seas over northwest Caribbean from
mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for details regarding the
gale warning off the coast of NE Florida.

A complex surface pattern is over the SW North Atlantic waters. A
1016 mb low is near 30N80W from which a cold front extends across
the northern Bahamas, SW to northern Cuba and then NW into the
Gulf of Mexico. To the SE of this low, a second 1013 mb low is
located near 29N77W just at the tail of a dissipating stationary
front that extends NE to 30N63W. Aside from the wind threat
discussed in the special features, scattered areas of deep
convection with tstms are noted N of 25N between 65W and 79W.

The cold front will move a little farther east overnight as the
low lifts north, then dissipate Mon. A ridge will build westward
into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift
north of the area Thu and Fri.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net