[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N36W. No
significant convection is occurring at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from southwest Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate N-NE winds follow behind the
front, becoming moderate to fresh in the western Gulf. Gentle
southerly winds are ahead of the front in the Florida Straits.
Seas range from 3-6 ft, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas
are up to 8 ft.

The cold front will move southeast of the basin by early this
evening. Another front will move into the northeast Gulf early
Sat, and will weaken as it moves across the eastern and central
Gulf through late Sun. High pressure will build over the
northeast Gulf early next week, supporting increased E to SE
winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from eastern Honduras SE across the
southwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
south-central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off the coast
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the north-central
Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 9-11
ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 6-7 ft over the north-
central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western
Caribbean.

A cold front currently moving through the southeast Gulf will
move through the Yucatan Channel tonight before stalling and
dissipating over the far northwest Gulf through late Sat. Large
northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will subside through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from
32N73W to Miami, FL. ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong W winds
behind the front, with strong S winds within 180 nm ahead of the
front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 80 nm east
of the front. Seas over this area are in the 7-12 ft range. A
stationary front extends from 32N33W to the Leeward Islands
where the tail end of the front is dissipating. Fresh to strong
NE winds are behind the front to 50W, and north of 27N.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with decaying seas
in the 6-9 ft range.

The cold front will stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by early
Sat. A second front will move into the waters off northeast
Florida early Sat, and move into the Straits of Florida by early
Sun as the first front dissipates. The second front will move
farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure
developing along the front lifts north of the area.

$$
Mora
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