[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N17W
to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 00N37W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is observed east of 13W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between
17W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A west-to-east pressure gradient from low pressure over Mexico to
high pressure east of the Bahamas is inducing moderate to fresh
SE to S winds over the Gulf of Mexico. The exception are the fresh
to strong E to SE winds just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Peak
seas are 5 to 6 ft over the central and western Gulf. A few
showers are developing in the NW Gulf in advance of a strong cold
front over Texas. Areas of dense fog are possible this morning as
well. No significant deep convection or showers are occurring
elsewhere over the Gulf of Mexico.

Southerly flow will prevail across the basin through Wed morning
ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf later today.
The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche on Thu, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula on Fri. Near gale-force winds are likely near Veracruz,
roughly south of 21N west of the front, by Thu. The strong winds
will end by Thu night and the cold front will exit the SE Gulf on
Fri. Seas will peak around 8-10 ft in the area of strongest winds
Thu afternoon and Thu evening then subside Thu night as the winds
diminish. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are possible
in the NE Gulf Sat night through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong north-south pressure gradient between high pressure east
of the Bahamas and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is forcing three
separate areas of strong winds: just north of Colombia, the Gulf
of Honduras, and the Windward Passage. Scatterometer winds this
evening did not cover the area just north of Colombia that should
have the strongest winds, but coverage farther west suggests that
gale-force winds were not occurring. Peak seas are likely 8-11 ft
north of Colombia and 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage. Widely scattered showers are present south of 16N across
the southern Caribbean.

Near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
each night through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds are possible
in the Windward Passage tonight. SE winds will increase across the
NW Caribbean through tonight, ahead of a cold front moving into
the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall and weaken near the
Yucatan Channel Fri night and Sat. Large northerly swell will
affect the Tropical North Atlantic waters through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward across the central Atlantic
from 32N38W to 19N61W to 20N70W, just north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer winds indicated that the NW
winds behind the front had diminished north of 30N. A very large
area of 12 ft seas remains present for most of our Atlantic waters
north of 22N and east of 65W due to long period NW swell. Peak
seas observed were 23 ft near 30N45W from an altimeter pass. A
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 30N38W to
22N46W. The cold front and the trough have scattered showers
within 60 to 90 nm of their respective boundaries.

The cold front along 20N will push southward across the Greater
Antilles later today. Large northerly swell will affect the waters
northeast of the Leeward Islands through Thu. A cold front will
move east of northern Florida Thu night, extend from near 31N71W
to the Straits of Florida Fri night, then become stationary on
Sat. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front
will intensify northerly winds east of northern Florida Sun and
Sun night, with gale conditions possible. Farther east, the
large NW swell will propagate across the Atlantic High Seas
forecast waters by Thu and gradually diminish afterwards. Aside
from some fresh to locally strong NE winds occurring Fri and Sat
near 28N45W, south of a developing high pressure, the trade winds
across the basin will remain moderate to fresh.

$$
Mundell
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