[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Minimal gale-force winds should
occur across the Veracruz region in the wake of the front by Thu.
The gale-force winds will end by Thu night and the cold front
will exit the SE Gulf on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-10 ft in
and near the area of gale-force winds late Thu afternoon and early
Thu evening before subsiding as the winds diminish.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
13N17W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 01N36W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed east
of 10W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N
between 12W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A west-to-east pressure gradient from low pressure over Mexico to
high pressure east of the Bahamas is inducing generally moderate
to fresh SE to S winds over the Gulf of Mexico. The exception are
the fresh to strong E to SE winds just north of Yucatan. Peak seas
are 5 to 6 ft over the central and W Gulf. No significant deep
convection ore showers are occurring this evening over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Southerly flow will prevail across the basin through Wed morning
ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Wed
afternoon. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche on Thu, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula on Fri. A brief period of gale-force NW winds is
expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico Thu afternoon. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are possible in the NE Gulf Sat
night through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong north-south pressure gradient between high pressure east
of the Bahamas and a 1008 mb low over Colombia is forcing three
separate areas of strong to near gale winds: just north of
Colombia, the Gulf of Honduras, and the Windward Passage.
Scatterometer winds this evening did not cover the area just north
of Colombia that should have the strongest winds, but coverage
farther west suggests that gale-force winds were not occurring.
Peak seas are likely 8-10 ft north of Colombia and 5-6 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Scattered showers are
present south of 16N, across the S Caribbean.

Near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at
night through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds are possible in
the Windward Passage tonight. SE winds will increase across the NW
Caribbean through Wed night ahead of a cold front moving into the
Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall and weaken near the Yucatan
Channel Fri night and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward across the central Atlantic
from 32N39W to 20N70W, just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Scatterometer winds from around 23 UTC indicated that the NW winds
behind the front had dropped to strong breeze north of 30N.
However, a very large area of 12 ft seas remains present for most
of our Atlantic waters north of 22N and east of 65W due to long
period NW swell. Peak seas observed were 23 ft near 30N45W from
an altimeter pass. There also is a surface trough extending
southwestward from 27N42W to 16N60W, just east of the Leeward
Islands. Both the cold front and the trough have scattered showers
within 60 nmi of these boundaries.

The frontal boundary east of the Bahamas will push southward into
the Greater Antilles through Wed, to extend from 21N50W to south
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola near 17N67W by Wed night. Large
northerly swell will affect the waters north and east of the
Virgin Islands through Thu. A cold front will move east of
northern Florida Thu night, and extend from 31N71W to the Straits
of Florida Fri night. The front will become stationary on Sat. Low
pressure forming along the stationary front will strengthen NE
winds across the waters east of Florida Sun and Sun night.

Farther east, the large NW swell will propagate across all of our
Atlantic High Seas waters by Thu and gradually diminish
afterwards. Aside from some strong NE winds occurring Fri and Sat
near 28N45W south of a developing high, the NE to E trades across
the basin will remain gentle to fresh.

$$
Landsea
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