[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move
eastward in the central N Atlantic through Tue. Gale-force W
winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N
border to 29N between 48W and 60W through Tue morning to the west
of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as the system turns
toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate
breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE
swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night.

Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure
north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give
way to gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and Tues
night. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to
strong NE to E winds Wed night through Fri night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring
south of 05N and east of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front continues to linger off the Texas and Mexico
coast extending from 30N94W to 24N97W. Weak surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the area, anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered over the coast near 37N77W. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong SE winds over the Bay of Campeche between
90W-94W, while gentle to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas range 3-5 ft across the Gulf with calm seas in the NE Gulf.

The stationary front is expected to linger over the NW Gulf
before weakening as it moves farther inland this evening. Fresh to
locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and
central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A cold front is forecast to
push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters
through Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the northern portion of the
basin, affecting the waters in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
elsewhere. Surface ridging is allowing for fair weather
conditions to prevail over the basin. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range over the entire basin, with the highest seas in the south-
central Caribbean.

Pulses of gale-force winds will occur within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. From Wed
night until the end of the week, expect fresh to strong winds in
this region. Meanwhile, pulses of fresh to strong winds will
persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through
Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will dominate most of
the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W and will continue
through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the
Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning along our High Seas northern border.

A cold front entered the discussion area in the western Atlantic,
extending from 32N59W to 27N70W to 31N79W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds prevail north of the front, while light to gentle
variable winds are noted south of the front. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 31N47W to 22N54W. Scattered showers
are noted along the trough. Surface ridging dominates the eastern
Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate trades with seas around 5
ft.

Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in NW swell
will continue follow the cold front over the west Atlantic,
through tonight. The front will extend along 22N-23N by Tue
morning, reaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico Tue night
into Wed. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida
coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected
ahead of this front through Fri. Northerly swell is expected to
impact the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the
Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed.

$$
ERA
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