[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W, to 06N17W, and to 03N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N26W, to 02N30W, 01N37W, and 01N41W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from
03N southward between 05W and 13W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from
30W eastward, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 30W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across NE Florida, to the coastal waters of south central
Louisiana, and then southwestward to the coastal sections of
Mexico near 20N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will shift eastward
and weaken through Saturday. Southeast return flow in the
western Gulf of Mexico will expand across the entire Gulf of
Mexico, slowly, through the weekend, becoming fresh to strong in
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night.
The wind speeds will diminish into early next week, as a cold
front stalls near the coast of Texas, from Sunday through Monday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the NE Caribbean Sea into the
Atlantic Ocean: from St. Kitts and Nevis to Anguilla, to 19N63W
20N63W, curving to 21N61W. The scatterometer wind data from
13/0100 UTC show NE winds that range from 25 knots to 30 knots
from 20.5N to 23.5N between 61.5W and 65.5W. NE winds at 20
knots are elsewhere from 20N to 27N between 61W and 68W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from 17N to 23N between 56W and 65W.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough that passes through the
Windward Passage and that reaches Nicaragua. The GFS model for
500 mb shows a trough that passes through the Mona Passage, and
that reaches the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough extends from Lake
Maracaibo and NW Venezuela to 16N66W in the Caribbean Sea. A
ridge is along 12N/13N from the inverted trough eastward. NE
wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea to the west of the
inverted trough.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through
and beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in Colombia,
within 210 nm to the south of the surface trough. Please refer
to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.

The winds and the seas will diminish across the region, through
Sunday, as high pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea
weakens. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist through
the Windward Passage, and to the south of Hispaniola, into early
next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia, at night, through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N38W to 30N40W, and 26N44W. A
surface trough continues from 26N44W, to 22N58W. Precipitation:
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers
are from 20N northward between 30W and 58W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N21W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 19N
northward from 30W eastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 23N to 26N between Africa and 18W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the N and NW of the cold front/surface trough. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 33N60W.

A 1031 mb high pressure center near 39N20W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from cold
front/surface trough eastward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the
region through Sunday, as high pressure in the central Atlantic
Ocean weakens. A developing surface trough, located to the N of
Puerto Rico, will shift eastward during the next couple of days.
A cold front will move southward, between Bermuda and northern
Florida, on Saturday night and Sunday. A reinforcing cold front
will move to the south of 30N on Monday.

$$
mt/DM
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