[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally heavy Rainfall over Hispaniola:

A stationary front extends to the northern portions of
Hispaniola. There are currently some showers noted over NW
Hispaniola near the tail-end of the front with most convective
activity north of the island. Abundant low level moisture
associated with the front will continue to be transported across
much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola before the
front begins to drift N tonight through Fri. Scattered to
numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds associated with
the front could impact these areas this evening. Locally heavy
rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some of these
showers and will maintain the potential for flash flooding and
river flooding, as well as landslides across higher elevations.
Flood warnings and watches have been announced for several
provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S43W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm N and
90 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the NE Gulf,
and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift slowly
eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the southeast
Gulf and the Florida Straits into Fri. Southeast return flow
across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire
Gulf through the weekend, becoming strong over the northwest Gulf
Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as the
next cold front stalls near the Texas coast Sun into Mon, before
lifting north Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA

See the Special Features section for more information concerning
the heavy rainfall over Hispaniola.

High pressure is centered near 33N72W. This area of high pressure
is supporting fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage
as well as the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted
off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
over the western half of the Caribbean and 4-6 ft over the
eastern half.

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to
support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and south-
central Caribbean. This will diminish slightly by Sat, but pulses
of fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off Colombia into early next
week. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri
night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from low pres near 34N44W to 23N61W, then
stationary to just north of Hispaniola. High pressure is centered
north of the area near 33N72W. Fresh to strong winds prevail
within 300 nm N of the front, where seas are in the 8-12 ft
range. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the
front, with seas of 5-8 ft over the open waters. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are elsewhere across the
discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, The stationary front is expected
to drift northward and meander through tonight before dissipating
early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the front will support
fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell
south of 28N through Fri evening. Another cold front will move
southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida
Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon
night and Tue.

$$
AL
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