[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a
cold front moving SE across the cental Atlantic will increase the
pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean through
midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected
to increase to gale force tonight, and then again Tue night. Seas
will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds.

Refer the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the Gale Warnings.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A cold front extending
from NW Hispaniola southwestward to Jamaica northern adjacent
waters will stall over the Dominican Republic tonight through Tue
evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the potential for
localized flooding, particularly for northwestern portions of the
Dominican Republic late tonight through Tue night. The tail end of
the same front is stalling out over northern Honduras, where
locally heavy rainfall is also likely through early Wed. See
products issued by your National Meteorological Service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N15W
and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between
07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 19W and the coast of South
America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong 1033 mb high pressure centered over central Tennessee
extends a ridge S into the Gulf which is currently supporting
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern half of the basin
with the strongest winds happening in the Straits of Florida,
western Cuba adjacent waters and the Yucatan channel. Seas in the
region of strongest winds range between 8 to 9 ft. Moderate NE to
E winds winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere across the western
half of the gulf. Otherwise, strong dry air subsidence continues
to support mainly clear skies, with the exception of the SW Gulf
where shallow moisture is supporting areas of overcast low clouds
with showers.

Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida
Straits through midweek. As the ridge slides eastward during the
latter parts of this week, fresh SE return flow will develop
across much of the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea and on the heavy
rainfall for portions of Hispaniola and Honduras.

The tail of a cold front extends from NW Haiti southwest to
northern Jamaica adjacent waters where it transitions to a
stationary front that continues to Honduras. Scattered showers
are along portions of the front, including Hispaniola, eastern
Cuba and Jamaica. Relatively dry conditions prevail across the
the remainder basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are behing the front
over the NW Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh trades are in the central and eastern Caribbean
while strong to near gale force NE winds are over the offshore
waters between Panama and Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through midweek, with gale-force winds expected to
pulse near the coast of Colombia for the next several nights. The
front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the
next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist poleward of
the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean and through the
Windward Passage. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will
remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed N swell
and E wind waves.

Of note...a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is
currently generating numerous showers and tstorms over western
Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected over western
Colombia through early Tue. These rains are likely to cause
localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your local
meteorological offices for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 23N65W to Jamaica northern
adjacent waters near 18N77W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
behind the front to nearly 79W with the strongest winds occurring
over the offshore waters NE of the Bahamas. Seas are 11 to 14 ft
in the region of strongest winds while seas to 8 ft reach as far
as 80W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 27N
to 51W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the
Azores High, currently at 1032 mb centered near 34N33W. The high
is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds from
05N-26N between 17W-47W. Seas in this area are 8 to 12 ft in
primarily easterly trade wind swell.

The cold front is expected to stall roughly from 22N63W to the
Dominican Republic on Tue and gradually dissipate by midweek.
Strong high pressure will build behind the front and support fresh
to strong N to NE winds over the SW N Atlantic waters with large
seas south of 27N through much of this week.

$$
Ramos
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