[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N64W to
a 1012 mb low near 28N70W. A cold front extends from this low to
the central Bahamas to Belize adjacent waters. The cold front
will move SE through Mon, while the low slides NE along the front
and deepens across the western Atlantic through tonight. High
pressure NW of the region will act to increase northerly winds
behind the front. Gale force winds are expected to develop within
210 nm SW quadrant of the low tonight. Gale conditions will lift
N of the area by Mon morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
High pressure building behind a cold front moving SE across the
western Atlantic the next few days will increase the pressure
gradient across the south central Caribbean tonight through
midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected
to increase to gale force Mon night, and then again Tue night.
Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas
forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

A cold front extending from central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent
waters will reach Hispaniola Mon night and stall over the island
through Tue evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the
potential for flooding.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 09N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W.
There is no significant convection at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure building along the eastern United States
extending a ridge SW into the gulf is currently supporting NE
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin and
gentle to moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft E of
90W, the highest seas being in the SE portion of the gulf where
strong NE winds are developing. In the western half of the basin,
seas range between 3 to 6 ft. Strong dry air subsidence continue
to support mainly clear skies, except over the far western gulf W
of 94W where shallow moisture and diffluent flow at the lower
levels support a line of showers along the coast and adjacent
waters of Mexico.

Strong winds developing this evening in the SE basin will affect
the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel through early next
weekend. Otherwise, by Thu, SE return flow will develop across
the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent
waters. There is no convection associated with this front at the
time. Moderate to fresh winds behind the front will increase to
fresh to strong N to NE winds tonight as the front continue to move
SE into Mon evening. The front is forecast to stall from Dominican
Republic to Honduras Mon night through Tue evening, potentially
bringing heavy rain and flooding to Hispaniola.

Mainly moderate to fresh winds are occurring over the central and
eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombia
coast. These conditions will prevail through Thu, with fresh to
locally strong winds expanding in areal coverage Tue and Wed. With
the passage of the front and strong high pressure building behind
it, strong to near gale force winds will affect the Windard
Passage and Jamaica adjacent waters Mon through Wed. Otherwise, winds
will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and
Tue night.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N65W to 1013 mb low pressure
near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to central Cuba
near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either
side of these fronts east of 73W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are north of the fronts, where seas are from 7-10 ft. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high,
which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds
east of 55W. Seas are 7 to 13 ft with a component of longer
period NW swell.

Strong N to NE winds behind the front will prevail into
Monday night as the low moves NE and out of the area. Gales will
develop on the west side of the low this afternoon and continue on
Monday. By Tuesday, the front will slow down and weaken from
22N65W to the Haiti Dominican Republic border. Strong high
pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds
south of 27N through Wednesday.

$$
Ramos
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