[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure currently over the SE Gulf of
Mexico will deepen and move rapidly to the east across Florida
into the western Atlantic by tonight. Strong northerly winds
following the front will increase to gale force by Sun night over
Atlantic waters southwest of Bermuda, from 27N-31N between 65W-
70W, with 8 to 12 ft seas. For more information, please refer the
Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N24W to the coast
of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 01N-09N between 07W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough continue to support a cold front
that extends from Fort Myers, Florida to a 1013 mb low near
25N85W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are ahead
of the front, including the straits of Florida and the Yucatan
channel. Strong high pressure builing behind the front is
currently supporting NE fresh winds over the eastern half of the
gulf and fresh to strong N winds west of 90W, with the strongest
winds occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. Seas behind
the front range between 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the low will shift E-SE across the Gulf through
this evening, dragging the front across the Gulf. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong east winds across
the eastern Gulf tonight through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are over the Yucatan channel
and portions of the far NW Caribbean associated with a cold front
moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are also
across Hispaniola associated with a lingering surface trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
persist across the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally
stronger winds and seas to 7 ft farther south close the South
American coast. Gentle breezes 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail
in the southern Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to gale
force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold
front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight through
Sun. The front will stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue.
Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front
over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Considerable cloudiness and likely embedded showers are observed
along a stationary front that reaches from 32N54W to eastern
Cuba. Farther west, cloud covers extends along and north of a
cold front reaching from east of Bermuda near 32N61W to 29N75W
then is stationary to 28N80W. Fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted north of the front, west of 75W. Mostly gentle to
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of
65W. Farther east, ridge extends southwestward from 1034 mb high
pressure south of the Azores to just north of the Leeward Islands.
This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh trade winds east
of 65W, with fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W. Seas are 7 to
12 ft with a component of longer period NW swell.

For the forecast for the area west of 65W, the stationary front
from 32N54W to eastern Cuba will weaken today. Winds north of the
front will shift easterly today, and increase north of 27N late. A
low pressure system will move from central Florida to Bermuda
tonight through early Mon, accompanied by strong to near-gale
force winds. Winds will reach gale force west of the low Sun
night. The low will drag a cold front across the region through
early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon,
supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net