[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong SW winds ahead of a cold front
extending from 31N69W to northern Cuba will reach minimal gale-
force north of 30N today. Vigorous showers and thunderstorms are
occurring north of 26N and ahead of the cold front. A gale warning
remains in effect for the waters north of 30N ahead of the front,
with fresh to strong winds elsewhere north of 26N between 58W-
74W. Seas of 10-14 ft accompany these winds, and will peak at
around 16 ft along 31N today. The gale warning will remain in
effect through early afternoon today, with winds diminishing to
fresh to strong ahead of the front thereafter. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center
at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the
Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N25W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-
05N between 15W-24W, with an area of moderate to strong convection
noted from 04N-08N between 10W-13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is across the Yucatan Channel. A few showers
are associated with the frontal boundary. High pressure prevails
across the northwestern part of the basin. Areas of low-level
clouds dominate the Gulf. Winds are generally north to northeast
at 10 to 15 kt. Buoy observations indicate seas are 3-5 ft across
the region.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri. A low
pressure system is expected develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night,
then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf through Sat
night. High pressure building behind the front will support strong
E winds and building seas in the eastern Gulf Sun through Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow-moving, nearly stationary front is across the Yucatan
Channel. Weak 1018 mb high pressure is centered south of the
front near Honduras. Low pressure is analyzed over northern
Colombia near 09N75W. Fresh to strong winds continue in the
south-central Caribbean where the pressure gradient is tighter,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere south of 16N, and gentle
to moderate winds north of 16N. Seas are 7-9 ft in the southern
Caribbean, 4-7 ft south of 16N east of 82W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
As is normal at this time of the year, shallow moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow is moving across the area, producing
isolated passing showers.

The front across the Yucatan Channel will weaken across the NW
Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will
prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to
moderate winds expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may
move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the
Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. Winds
will become fresh to strong across the Caribbean on Sun as the
pressure gradient in the wake of the next cold front significantly
tightens due to building high pressure north of the area. Seas
will also build significantly across those portions of the basin
with the increasing winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Attention remains focused on the deepening low pressure located
near Bermuda. See the Special Features Section above for details
on the ongoing Gale Warning associated with this low.

Several weak surface troughs are analyzed from 31N23W to 29N28W,
from 31N39W to 28N45W, and from 32N54W to 26N64W. A cold front
extends from a gale-force low near 33N67W through 31N69W, across
the Bahamas to northern Cuba near 23N81W. A broad area of showers
and thunderstorms are north of 26N ahead of the cold front to near
62W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters south of these
features is dominated by ridging associated with a 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 30N34W.

The cold front will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba
on Fri. Strong SW winds to gale force will proceed the front over
the waters north of 29N today. Looking ahead, a developing low
pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda
Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by winds to gale force,
and dragging a cold front across the region Sun night and Mon.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will produce a
large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds across the waters south
of 27N and west of 60W Sun and Mon. Seas will steadily build in
response to the stronger winds across the waters west of 60W.

$$
Mundell
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