[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong pressure gradient between high
pressure to the north and lower pressure over South America will
lead to strong trade winds this week over the south-central
Caribbean. Gale conditions will develop offshore Colombia this
evening and prevail overnight, with another pulse of gales Tue
night. Seas early Tue morning will peak to 15 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the Texas
coast late this afternoon. This front will race southward offshore
the east coast of Mexico, and induce gales offshore Tampico,
Mexico tonight. Gales will also develop behind the front near
Veracruz, Mexico, Tue. Seas are expected to build to 9-12 ft.
Conditions will improve Tue night.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast Tue night, with SW gales developing ahead of it Wed morning,
N of 27N. These winds will spread E as the front moves E, through
Wed night, when the front will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas
line. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12 to 15 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National
Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about
these
events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra  Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W to 02N27W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 04N between 18W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information about a
Gale Warning across the western Gulf tonight and Tue.

Ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast late this
afternoon, generally moderate southerly flow prevails across the
basin. Moisture surging northward ahead of the front, combined
with a pre-frontal trough, is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf, within 120 nm of shore.
Showers and thunderstorms are also ongoing on both sides of the
cold front moving offshore Texas. The cold front has also helped
to diminish the front that was previously along the northern Gulf
coast. Seas throughout the basin are in the 3 to 6 ft range.

The aforementioned cold front will stall tonight. A low pressure
will develop along the frontal boundary dragging a new cold across
the western Gulf tonight into Tue morning. Gale-force winds will
develop near Tampico early Tue morning, and then near the Veracruz
area later in the morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana
to the central Bay of Campeche early Tue afternoon, from near the
Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue
night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near NW Yucatan
peninsula on Wed. The front will move across the SE Gulf Wed night
into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for information about an
ongoing Gale Warning near the northern coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds continue to dominate the central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except for the Windward
and Mona Passages, where locally strong NE winds are occurring.
Generally dry conditions prevail over the basin. Seas in the SW
Caribbean range from 8 to 11 ft, with 6 to 9 ft seas in the
central and eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow across the remainder
of the south- central Caribbean through Wed night. Similar wind
speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue morning.
Otherwise, north swell will continue to support large seas over
the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See Special Features section above for gale conditions forecast to
develop in the SW Atlantic ahead of a cold front moving offshore
the SE U.S. coast Wed.

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N63W.
Another high pressure, of 1022 mb, is centered north of the Canary
Islands at 33N19W. Between the two highs, a dissipating stationary
front extends from 32N31W to 28N40W, with a shear line continuing
to 20N54W. A surface trough ahead of the shear line stretches
from 23N44W to 15N48W. Scattered showers and a few weakening
thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the stationary boundary. Seas
average 6 to 9 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the high pressure SE of
Bermuda.

High pressure over the area will support fresh to locally strong
NE-E across the waters south of 22N through tonight. A cold front
will move off NE Florida this evening, then reach from 31N68W to
near Cape Canaveral by Tue morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
will follow the front, forecast to extend as a stationary front
across 28N by Tue evening. The front will transition to a warm
front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast
of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will
strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold
front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will
be preceded and followed by strong to minimal gale-force winds and
building seas. In its wake, high pressure will build over the
area through Fri night.


$$
KONARIK
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