[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently developed Tropical Depression Five is centered near 9.6N
46.3W at 01/0300 UTC or 890 nm ESE of the Windward Islands moving
W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within
60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 40W and 50W. A strong
subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical depression
and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-
northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the tropical
cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and begin to
move more poleward and slow down. The system is forecast to reach
tropical storm intensity today, and continue to intensify to near
50 kt in 36 hours. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on
Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W south of 12N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 27W and 32W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 19N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 19N between 58W and 65W. The wave will
continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the
Lesser Antilles overnight.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 20N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the
monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 22N. This wave is
moving very slowly and will merge with the wave to its east
overnight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes
from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. Aside
from convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 32W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail
in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere except just north of the Yucatan peninsula where fresh
to locally string winds are noted. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range
over the waters west of 90W, and 2-3 ft east of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh
east to southeast winds are expected at night near the western
Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five is near 9.6N
46.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 20 kt. The system is
forecast to pass near Cuba this weekend as a tropical storm.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as
well as over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave moving into the
eastern Caribbean is helping generate fresh to strong winds over
the NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range
in the central Caribbean, 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5
ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean
will move quickly into the central basin later this week. Locally
heavy rainfall and reduced visibility will occur over the Lesser
Antilles into Thu morning. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five
is near 9.6N 46.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Five will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 10.5N 49.6W Thu morning, move to 11.7N 54.4W
Thu evening, 13.0N 59.6W Fri morning, 14.7N 65.0W Fri evening,
16.5N 69.8W Sat morning, and 18.3N 73.8W Sat evening. The system
will remain a tropical storm as it passes near Cuba through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on recently developed T.D. Five.

Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, with
1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W. Fresh to strong winds
prevail north of the lesser Antilles where the pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and the tropical wave entering
the eastern Caribbean is tighter. Fresh to strong winds are noted
of the coast of Africa north of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are
also noted north of Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds are noted in
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing
elsewhere south o5 25N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range in the
vicinity of the high center and 3-5 ft elsewhere north of 20N.
South of 20N, seas are in the 5-8 ft range outside of T.D. Five.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and
dominate the forecast waters west of 65W the remainder of the
week. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five near 9.6N 46.3W 1008
mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.5N
49.6W Thu morning, move to 11.7N 54.4W Thu evening, 13.0N 59.6W
Fri morning, 14.7N 65.0W Fri evening, 16.5N 69.8W Sat morning, and
18.3N 73.8W Sat evening. The system will remain a tropical storm
as it passes near Cuba through the weekend.

$$
AL
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