[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad low pressure of 1009 mb located where a tropical wave
intersects the monsoon trough near 09N40W is producing numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection from 04N to 10N between
36W and 45W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while the system moves WNW at 20 kt.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that
region on Friday. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave axis is along 24W from 15N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 00N and 07N between 21W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 19N southward, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Please see Special Features section above for
more information on the potential for low pressure associated with
this wave to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 19N southward, moving
W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 11N to 16N between 52W and 59W. A low pressure
center previously associated with this low has diminished
overnight, and significant development of this system is unlikely
while it moves quickly west. This wave will pass through the
Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this
system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W, south of eastern Cuba,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in association with this have in and near the Windward
Passage.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 83W, south of western Cuba,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 80W and 87W as well as
in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N17W
to 09N23W to low pres near 09N40W to 07N47W. The ITCZ has formed
from 07N47W to 06N52W. All convection in the vicinity of these
features is related to tropical waves described in the sections
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends from the Florida panhandle to near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is being generated by this trough, stretching from 23N
to 30N between 83W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection has also
developed in the SW Gulf W of 92W and south of the U.S.-Mexico
border. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the
southwest Gulf, with generally gentle to moderate SE winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft in
the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E
to SE winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal
trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over the next
several days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas
may be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for details on the potential
for a low pressure currently centered midway between Africa and
the Windward Islands to develop into a tropical depression over
the next few days.

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean. Fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, highest just north
of Colombia. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the NW Caribbean,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently located a couple
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has only a low chance of
development as it moves quickly W to WNW at 20 to 25 kt. However,
as it passes through the Lesser Antilles today and then across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week, locally
heavy rain from disorganized showers and thunderstorms can be
expected. Farther east, a broad low pressure associated with a
tropical wave midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms
that are showing some signs of organization. Conditions appear
favorable for development and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves WNW around 20
kt. The system may impact the Windward and Leeward islands
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front that had been weakening along 30N, E of
Bermuda, has dissipated overnight, leaving high pressure
dominating the basin. Convection is confined to between Florida
and the Bahamas and in an area from 20N to 25N between 63W and
73W. N of 20N, generally gentle to moderate winds prevail, with
fresh trades to the S. Seas S of 20N are 5 to 7 ft, with 3 to 5 ft
seas elsewhere. Winds and seas are higher in and near the tropical
waves described in the Tropical Waves section above. Also, an area
of 8 to 10 ft seas generated by earlier strong winds is noted
between the Cabo Verde islands, the Canary Islands, and the
African coast.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward
and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh
to strong winds are expected just N of Hispaniola Thu night
through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and a couple of tropical wave passages over the
Caribbean Sea.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net