[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean near 35W/36W from 15N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N
between 31W and 36W, and from 04N to 11N between 35W and 42W. This
area continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development of this area is possible during the next several days
as it moves generally west- northwestward. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
information.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean near 51W/52W from 17N
southward, moving W at around 15N. A 1009 mb surface low is
analyzed along the tropical wave near 12N52W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between
49W and 55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to
16N between 55W and 60W. Some slow development of this area is
possible later this week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wed night.
Regardless of development, this area could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few
days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information, and refer to your
national meteorological agency for more details on any potential
impacts.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea near 58W/59W from just
south of the eastern Dominican Republic to over western Venezuela,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring
over water with this wave, however some showers and thunderstorms
have developed over portions of Venezuela with the assistance of
daytime heating.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea near 85W from 18N
southward across eastern Honduras, central Nicaragua and western
Costa Rica, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between 80W
and 85W with additional deep convection over land.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to
10N21W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 19W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough runs west-southwest from near the Florida
Panhandle across the northern Gulf to over northern Mexico.
Divergent flow south of these features is coupling with convergent
SE winds to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms across
much of the Gulf basin and surrounding land areas early this
evening. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near Tampico, Mexico
near 22N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 19N to 16N west of 95W. Fresh to near gale force winds
and seas of 5 to 8 ft are also noted from 22N to 27N west of 95W.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin, except gentle to
moderate south of 22N.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E
to SE fresh winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal
trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over the next
2 or 3 days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave Section above for more detail
information on convection and further details.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean south of 22N and west of 78W including over Panama.
Otherwise, no significant convection is noted across the basin
south of 18N and east of 80W with a dry trade-wind. Fresh to
strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean south of 18N, and
in the NW Caribbean north of 16N and west of 84W. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate
south of 11N. Seas are in the 6 to 10 ft range in the central
Caribbean, 5 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean, and mainly 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian low will bring increasing winds and
seas across the basin, particularly across the south-central
Caribbean through early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging dominates the waters west of 65W with moderate to locally
fresh E-SE flow. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area east of the
Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of
76W/77W, as well as from 20N to 27N between 65W and 71W due to
mid-upper level divergence.

To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 28N54W to
30N58W. Isolated showers are possible near this feature. High
pressure ridging prevails both north of and south of the front.
Light to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north of 25N and east
of 65W, along with mainly 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are south of 25N and north of the convergence zone,
except fresh to strong from 12N to 16N between 48W and 54W near a
vigorous tropical wave and attendant low pressure area. Seas are
mainly 5 to 7 ft across this area, except 7 to 9 ft near the area
of fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are also
noted west of the coast of Africa to 20W, north of 19N due to a
locally tight pressure gradient, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward
and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh
to strong winds are expected just N of Hispaniola Thu night
through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and a couple of tropical wave passages over the
Caribbean Sea.

$$
Lewitsky
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