[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 31N77W, about 300 nm ESE of
the Georgia coast. Disorganized numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted displaced N and W of the center due to
strong upper level wind shear. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring N
of 29N between 73W and 78W, with strong mainly SE winds being
observed in this same area. The low is forecast to move quickly
WNW at 10 to 20 mph, crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
later this morning. There is potential this low develops into a
tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of
Georgia or southern South Carolina this evening, thus tropical
storm warnings may be required for portions of the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts. Regardless of developing, locally heavy
rainfall can be expected along the immediate coasts and adjacent
waters. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on this afternoon, if
necessary. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 17W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Broad low pressure associated with this
tropical wave is centered near 12N39W at 1009 mb. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of
the center. Fresh E winds and seas of up to 8 ft accompany this
wave, north of the low center. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while the system moves quickly W at 15
to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wed or Wed
night. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, approaching the
Lesser Antilles. It is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the tropical
wave. Fresh E winds are occurring in the wake of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W Cuba southward,
approaching Jamaica, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring in and near Jamaica and
Haiti, as well as from 13N to 18N between 75W and 83W. In the wake
of this wave, fresh to locally strong E winds are occurring in the
south central Caribbean Seas.

A tropical wave that has crossed much of Central America and into
the eastern Pacific extends northward into the Bay of Campeche
along 93W, S of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection encompasses the Bay of Campeche and
adjacent portions of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N25W to 1009 mb low pressure near
12N39W, described in the tropical wave section above. The monsoon
trough then continues to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to
06N55W, near the French Guiana-Suriname border. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection extends along the monsoon trough S
of 10N and E of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough along the Texas coast has moved inland overnight.
In its wake, mid and upper level cyclonic flow over much of the
basin is aiding in a broad area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection. Winds over the western Gulf are moderate to
fresh with gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas
are generally 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft in the
east.

Generally moderate SE winds will prevail through late
week as the basin resides between a trough over the far SW Gulf
and high pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described
above, no significant showers and thunderstorms are occurring.
Winds are mainly gentle to to moderate in the NW Caribbean,
moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean, and fresh in the
central Caribbean. Locally strong winds are occurring just off the
coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas average 2 to 4 ft in the
western Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 5 to 7
ft in the central Caribbean.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection
associated with this tough has diminished overnight.

The tropical wave currently approaching Jamaica will move west
across the basin into tonight. Winds and seas will increase as
high pressure builds over the basin following the tropical wave.
Another robust tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed
or Thu, bringing gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the eastern Caribbean late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure north of the Bahamas that has a potential for tropical
development today.

A slow-moving cold front extends from 32N30W to 29N45W to 32N60W,
within scattered moderate convection along it and within 30 nm of
its boundary. South of the front, gentle winds prevail N of 25N,
then moderate to fresh trades dominate to the south. Seas are 3 to
5 ft in the area of lighter winds, and 6 to 8 ft where trades are
highest.

A weak upper-level low is inducing scattered moderate convection
from 21N to 28N between 62W and 72W. A broad area of Saharan dust
is indicated on satellite generally S of 25N and E of 40W.

A tropical wave may approach areas south and east of the Bahamas
late in the week, otherwise for areas W of 65W, expect moderate SE
flow as high pressures builds southward to the E.

$$
KONARIK
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