[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
that a small low pressure system has formed about 435 NM east-
southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures
have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms
have recently become better organized. Some additional development
of this system will be possible later today, and especially on
Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the
Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the
system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is
expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at
about 13 kt on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern
United States by late Monday. Current forecasts indicate peak
winds of 30 kt and seas of 11 ft in TAFB's waters. Latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please, read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 18W from 15N southward. This wave is
identifiable from satellite imagery, tropical wave diagnostics,
and the Hovmoler diagram. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N-11N between 18W-27W.

A second tropical wave is along 34W, from 17N southward. A 1009
mb low pressure center is analyzed along the tropical wave, near
10N. Scattered moderate convection is within about 180 nm NW
quadrant of the center. Little, if any, development of this system
is expected for the next couple of days, followed by some gradual
development by Wednesday and continuing through the end of the
week while it moves it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15-20 kt. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

Another tropical wave is along 58W, from 18N southward, moving W
at 10 to 15 knots. Convection is limited near the wave axis that
is surrounding by African dust.

A tropical wave is moving westward across the Caribbean Sea and
extends from Hispaniola to western Venezuela. It axis is near 73W
moving W at 10 kt. The wave is helping to induce some convective
activity over Hispaniola.

A tropical wave has reached the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern
Central America. It axis is along 90W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are flaring up near the northern end of the wave
axis over the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N16W to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 10N34W to
08N42W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N42W to 10N57W. Convection
that is occurring is primarily associated with tropical waves, as
described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is still spinning over the NW Gulf supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 25N and
west of 88W. A surface trough induced by this upper this low,
extends 29N93W to 26N97W. Surface winds - aside from those
enhanced locally by thunderstorms - are generally E to SE gentle
to moderate winds. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Gulf and 2-4
ft over the W and E Gulf.

In the forecast, the trough over the northwest Gulf will move
inland over Texas through late today, bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with it.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE winds will persist through the
latter part of the week between a trough over the far southwest
Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak north-south pressure gradient is forcing only moderate to
fresh E trades across the Caribbean today. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
central and E Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the W Caribbean. The east
Pacific monsoon trough is associated with scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection south of 13N west of 78W.

The tropical wave currently south of Haiti will move westward
across the basin through Mon. Winds and seas will increase across
mainly the southeast and south central Caribbean as high pressure
builds over the basin following the tropical wave. Winds and seas
will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon night
following the tropical wave. Another tropical wave may approach
the Lesser Antilles late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
that a small low pressure system has formed about 435 nm east-
southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Please, refer to
the Special Features section for more details.

Elsewhere the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb Bermuda High
near 38N62W and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing generally
gentle to fresh E to SE trades south of 27N. A weak cold front has
reached our northern border and stretches from 31N35W to 31N57W.
Seas across the waters are generally 5-7 ft south of 23N as well
as north of 27N and west of 65W.

The 1013 mb low pressure near 30N73W is expected to deepen as it
moves toward the South Carolina coast through late Mon, and may
briefly become a tropical depression or storm before landfall. At
a minimum, mariners in this area can expect strong to near gale
force winds and rough seas in occasional squalls through Mon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist to the southeast
of this low and east of the Bahamas into Mon. Elsewhere moderate
SE flow will persist through late week as high pressure builds
over the area.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net