[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1009 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 09N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from the monsoon trough to 12N between the 29W/30W tropical wave
and 36W. Isolated moderate is from 10N southward between 20W and
30W. Some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle of next week, while it moves a little faster toward
the west and then west-northwest about 20 mph. Please, read the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
information.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 17N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. at 10 to 15 kt.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is between this tropical wave
and the 54W/55W tropical wave. Fresh winds are within 330 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 280 nm to the west of
the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is between this tropical wave
and the 46W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving W from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 280 nm to the east
of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W from the Yucatan
Channel southward, moving westward 5 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is from 90 nm to 270 nm to the west of the
Yucatan Channel tropical wave, from the western sections of
Honduras to the eastern and east central sections of Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center
that is along the 29W/30W tropical wave. The monsoon trough
continues to 05N37W and 06N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 13N from 19W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves along 25N88W 23N91W 20N92W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 26N between 88W
and 92W. Moderate to locally fresh winds have been observed to
the east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of
the trough. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5
feet in much of the Gulf waters, except the SW Gulf where the
sea heights are in the range of 2 feet to 3 feet.

A south central Gulf of Mexico surface trough will move
westward, through the NW Gulf, through late Sun. Expect
scattered rainshowers and and thunderstorms, and fresh SE winds
along with it.
Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist, elsewhere, through the
middle of the next week week, between a far-SE Gulf of Mexico
surface trough and western Atlantic Ocean high pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 280
nm to the east of the tropical wave. A second tropical wave is
along 85W/86W from the Yucatan Channel southward. Precipitation:
numerous strong is from 90 nm to 270 nm to the west of the
Yucatan Channel tropical wave, from the western sections of
Honduras to the eastern and east central sections of Guatemala.

A relatively weak pressure gradient spans the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate winds have been prevailing across much of the
Caribbean Sea, except for the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
where light to gentle winds are being observed. The sea heights
have been in the range of 3 feet to 5 feet in the central and
eastern sections, with 2 feet to 3 feet covering the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh E-to-SE winds are from 11N to 15N
between 61W and 66W.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W in Colombia, to 11N85W in
northern Costa Rica, beyond 10N90W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
waters and the coastal plains from 15N southward from 72W
westward.

A tropical wave, that currently is to the south of Hispaniola,
will move westward across the basin through Monday. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, and off Honduras, into early next week. Gentle to
moderate trade winds will cover the areas elsewhere. The wind
speeds will increase, and the sea heights will build slightly,
in most areas by the middle of next week, as high pressure to
the north of the basin extends into the Caribbean Sea, in in the
wake of the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 29N65W 26N69W 23N70W. Strong to
near gale-force winds are within 190 nm to the north of the
surface trough between 67W and 70W. Fresh-to-strong winds are
elsewhere within 280 nm to the north of the surface trough
between 65W and 72W. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to
8 feet within 300 nm to the north of the surface trough between
65W and 71W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 240 nm to the north of the surface trough
between 66W and 70W. Surface pressures remain high in the
Atlantic Ocean, near the surface trough. Significant development
of this system is not anticipated, while it moves westward and
then west-northwestward about 15 mph during the next few days.
It is expected to reach the coast of the southeastern United
States late on Monday. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

A cold front is to the north of the area, along 32N/34N between
30W and 59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N northward
between 30W and 60W.

Moderate-to-fresh winds prevail across much of the discussion
waters. Sea heights of 3-5 feet cover the waters that are from
20N northward, and range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N
southward.

A trough, north of 24N between 65W and 70W, will move across the
region through Tuesday, bringing rainshowers and thunderstorms
and locally strong winds. This will be followed by weak high
pressure through the middle of next week

$$
MT/SK
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