[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W. A surface low pressure
of 1009 mb is centered where the wave and monsoon trough
intersect. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 02N to 14N between 24W to 32W. Some slow development of the
low will be possible over the next several days while the
disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This
tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward and
moving W near 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba
southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted
across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to low pres near 09N28W to 06N42W. Aside from
convention noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N E of
20W to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is located over the Gulf from 27N89W to 20N92W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm
east of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of the
trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over much of the Gulf
waters, except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range.

For the forecast, a trough over the south-central Gulf will move
west through the NW Gulf through late Sun, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with
it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid
week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high
pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Caribbean,
except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next
week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will
increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle
of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 25N70W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm east
of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
are in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere moderate to fresh
winds prevail across much of the discussion waters. Seas of 3-5
ft prevail over the waters north of 20N, and 4-6 ft south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the trough north of 24N between 65W
and 70W will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak
high pressure through the middle of next week.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net