[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 19W, from 15N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment, mainly where the wave meets the monsoon trough near
08N.

A tropical wave axis extends along 37W from 13N southward, moving
W from 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's
axis mainly south of 07N.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 49W from 14N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
The sea heights range from 6 to 8 ft, in the areas of the faster
wind speeds.

A Caribbean tropical wave was repositioned based on satellite data
and latest model guidance. The axis is now along 85W, from 17N
southward, moving W from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of
13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N23W to 06N32W. The ITCZ is along
05N38W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough mainly east of 30W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin, with seas ranging between 4-6 ft
over the western half and between 2-4 ft over the eastern half.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from the Atlantic. To the
north, scattered showers are noted north of 28N related to a
frontal boundary currently extending across the coastal gulf
states. To the east, scattered showers prevail east of 86W.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each
night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered over the Windward
Passage enhancing convection across Hispaniola and adjacent
waters between 68W-75W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia beyond
northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm to the north of the
trough between 78W and 86W.

The Atlantic high pressure combined with the
Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through early Wed. Pulsing fresh to strong E
to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Central America along
85W will continue moving west enhancing the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms. The next tropical wave is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough is along 34N43W to 28N43W to 23N41W. An upper
level trough is about 340 nm to the NW of the surface trough.
Scattered moderate convection is from 27N northward between 43W-
50W. A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure center
that is near 30N56W, to 29N72W, across Florida, to 28N along 86W
in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from
24N southward and W of 55W. Fresh NE winds were being reported
between the coast of W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Sea
heights are ranging from 7 to 8 ft from 29N to 34N from 14W
eastward.

A surface ridge will dominate the area during the next several
days. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected through today
over waters N of 30N W of 70W due to the pressure gradient between
the remnants of Claudette and the Atlantic high pressure. Fresh
to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola
adjacent waters including approaches to the Windward Passage
through the end of the week.

$$
ERA
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