[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 34.2N 82.5W at
20/2100 UTC or 70 nm W of Columbia South Carolina moving ENE at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the
forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions
of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of
North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass
near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some re-
strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to
become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over
eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the
western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tue afternoon or Tue
night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is located from 05N to 13N with an axis along
31W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 43W,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N to 11N between 40W-46W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 69W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
10N15W to 06N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
08N40W then continues west of a tropical wave near 08N44W to
08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N to 10N E of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Although Tropical Depression Claudette is centered over South
Carolina and moving NE away from the area, outer rainbands
associated with it continue to support numerous moderate to strong
convection along the northern Gulf coast and within 120 nm of
shore. Some strong winds are likely with this activity as well as
restrictions in visibility. Moderate to locally fresh return flow
is elsewhere across the basin with seas with seas ranging between
3 to 5 ft.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days.
Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across
the western Gulf later this evening and continue through Mon.
Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early
morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave along 69W is generating a few thunderstorms over
and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The pressure gradient
between the Azores high and lower pressure associated with the
tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern half of the basin, with fresh to strong winds occurring
over the south-central waters. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW
Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds pulse to
fresh to strong.

The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to
support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean
through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical over
the eastern Caribbean along 68W will move across the central
Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

With Tropical Depression Claudette move ENE through South
Carolina, the system will generally remain north of the area.
However, moderate rainbands are impact areas N of 28N and W of
75W. The Azores high extends a ridge axis into the area W of 65W
and supports mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Light to gentle
variable winds are across the central Atlantic while a stronger
pressure gradient due to lower pressure over northern Africa
supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Atlantic E of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are
expected to develop over waters N of 30N W of 70W tonight and Mon
due to the pressure gradient between Claudette, forecast to move
into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and the Atlantic high
pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters, including approaches to the
Windward Passage, through Fri night.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net