[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 201442
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the
center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning.
Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight,
loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South
Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern
Georgia and northern Florida.  There have been a few wind reports of
20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the
past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some
elevated towers.  The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but
the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring
mainly over water.

Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt.  There has been no change to
the track forecast reasoning.  Claudette should continue to
accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough
moving into the central United States.  The center of the cyclone
should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then
pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and
Monday night.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement and
the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official
foreast.

As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern
United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase
along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to
regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning.  Additional
re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the
cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.  After that
time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an
extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical
cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday
morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various
intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global
models.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North
Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through
Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible across these areas.

2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and
the Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 33.8N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.4N  81.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1200Z 35.8N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0000Z 38.0N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  22/1200Z 41.1N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 44.3N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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