[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 29.6N 90.7W at 19/0900
UTC or 40 nm SW of New Orleans Louisiana moving NNE at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring within 300 nm of the E semicircle.
Rough seas are expected to continue with 12 ft seas extending 150
nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the SE quadrant with seas
reaching 19 ft. Tropical Storm Claudette is expected to turn
toward the northeast later today, with a turn toward the east-
northeast expected by tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track,
the system should move farther inland over Louisiana during the
next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast
and southeastern states through the weekend, and over the western
Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Claudette is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression by tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone
on Sunday. The system is forecast to re-develop over the western
Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 16N
southward, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W to 40W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 19N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
within 200 nm of the wave.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from
20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica from 18N to 20N
between 75W to 80W.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from
20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present
in the vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 09N33W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near
02N51W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section, an area of numerous strong convection is noted south of
the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia,
from 04N to 08N between 10W to 15W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N to 11N between
14W to 34W and from 03N to 08N between 40W to 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Claudette.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Gulf from
22N to 26N between 92W to 95W. Outside of the winds associated
with Tropical Storm Claudette, generally fresh SE winds are
occurring over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, with
gentle to moderate winds over the western basin. Seas across the
Gulf are mainly in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Claudette near 29.6N 90.7W 1006
mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Claudette will move inland to 30.9N 89.7W this
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
32.2N 87.6W by Sun morning. The majority of strongest winds and
frequent squalls and thunderstorms are expected to occur north and
east of T.S. Claudette through this afternoon. Rough seas are
expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through this
afternoon when seas are expected to subside below 12 ft. High
pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of
Three Sat night into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends in the extreme SW
waters between eastern Panama and northern Colombia. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted from 09N between 11N between 77W to 81W.
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to approach the Lesser
Antilles as a tropical wave approaches the region.

Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central Caribbean.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin.
Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6
ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave currently located along 78W will continue
to move W across the Caribbean today and enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser
Antilles by this evening and increase the likelihood of showers
and thunderstorms through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is draped along 30N between 64W to 71W. A
trough extends south of this front from 30N62W to 28N68W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
along and east of the trough, N of 26N between 55W to 66W.
Isolated thunderstorms are also noted across the Bahamas.
Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic. A 1021 mb low is noted near 29N26W with a cold front
extending west of the low to 31N32W. Showers are along the front.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 24N, with
moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3
ft range west of 75W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere north of 2N. South of
20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will build across the area
on Sat and dominate the area through midweek. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail through the weekend and into early next week.
Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over
Hispaniola adjacent waters through Wed night. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to increase across the waters N of 26N tonight into
Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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