[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 27.9N 91.2W at
18/2100 UTC or 110 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N to
29N between 85W and 91W. On the forecast track, the system will
make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early
Saturday. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast
and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is forecast.
Slight intensification is possible before the system makes
landfall.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 3W from 14N southward, and
is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 15N between 50W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 20N southward, and
is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present over and near Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 10N18W to 06N20W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N35W to 03N50W.
Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section, Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 10N between 12W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.

A surface trough extends along the Potential Tropical Cyclone
Three from 29N90W to 23N93W. Outside of the winds associated to
PTC Three, generally fresh SE winds are occurring over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle to moderate N winds over the
western basin. Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-5 ft
range, except 6 to 8 ft in the central Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three near 27.9N
91.2W 1006 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Three will move to 29.5N 90.8W Sat
morning, inland to 31.4N 89.4W Sat afternoon, inland to 32.8N
87.4W Sun morning, inland to 33.8N 84.9W Sun afternoon, become a
remnant low and move to 34.7N 81.9W Mon morning, and dissipate
Mon afternoon. The majority of strongest winds and frequent
squalls and tstms are expected to occur north and east of Three
through Sat morning. High pressure is forecast to build in across
the basin in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from SE Panama to
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted along the monsoon trough south of 13N between 74W and 83W.

Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central
Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in
the basin. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave currently located in the central Caribbean
will continue to move W across the Caribbean through Sun
enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave
will reach the Lesser Antilles by Sat night increasing the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A high pressure ridge prevails over the western Atlantic,
anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 32N44W. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 24N, with moderate
to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range
west of 75W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere north of 22N. South of 22N,
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, a trough will move eastward across
the northern forecast waters through tonight. Then, a ridge will
dominate the area the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to
strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola
adjacent waters during the forecast period.

$$
AL
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