[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 26.5N 91.1W at
18/1500 UTC or 190 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving NNE at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 24N to
31N between 86W and 91W. On the forecast track, the system will
make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early
Saturday. A slow NE motion across the SE U.S. is likely after
landfall through the weekend. Some strengthening is forecast and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the central
or northern Gulf of Mexico later today.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 31W from 18N
southward, and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 09N between 28W and 35W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 51W from 19N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 46W and 52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed near 71W from 21N
southward into Venezuela, and is moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present over and near Hispaniola

Another Caribbean tropical wave axis has moved into Central
America this morning, causing associated convection to move inland.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 10N18W. Segments of the ITCZ continue westward from 10N18W to
07N22W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N32W to
04N46W. Aside from the convection described with the tropical
waves in the section above, no significant convection is noted in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.

A surface trough extends along the Potential Tropical Cyclone
Three from 27N89W to 22N93W. Generally fresh SE winds are
occurring over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle to
moderate N winds over the western basin. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Bay of Campeche from 18N to 23N
between 91W to 97W.

A previously stationary front along the northern Gulf has lifted
inland as a warm front, with associated convection also now
inland. Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-5 ft range,
except 6 to 8 ft in the central Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three near 26.5N 91.1W
1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. Three will move to 28.2N 90.9W this evening,
inland to 30.3N 90.3W Sat morning, inland to 32.1N 88.9W Sat
evening, inland to 33.4N 86.4W Sun morning, become a remnant low
and move to 34.5N 83.8W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning.
The majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and tstms
are expected to occur north and east of Three through Sat
morning. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin
in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from SE Panama to
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted along the monsoon trough south of 13N between 74W to 83W.

Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the south central
Caribbean, strongest N of the Colombian and Venezuelan coasts to
15N, between 68W and 76W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft throughout the basin,
except 6-9 ft near the area of strong winds off in the south
central Caribbean.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon
night. Fresh to strong trades, scattered tstms and squalls will
follow a tropical wave currently located along 70W. The wave will
move W across the Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

S of a stationary front that stretches N of the region, scattered
moderate convection is occurring N of 25N and W of 60W. To the
east, a surface ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area
anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N west of 40W.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except from 18N to
24N between the west coast of Africa and 24W where fresh N-NE
winds persist due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7
to 10 ft in this area of fresh winds. In the Bahamas, seas are
2-4 ft. Outside of these areas, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across
the waters south of 22N, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas north of 22N.

For the forecast west of 65W, a trough will move eastward across
the northern forecast waters through tonight. Then, a ridge will
dominate the area the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to
strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola
adjacent waters during the forecast period.

$$
KONARIK
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