[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 23.5N 92.2W at
18/0300 UTC or 378 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. At this time,
scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from the
Yucatan Channel to the northern Gulf coast, 20N-29N and east of
90W. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-
central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward
motion across the southeastern United States is likely after
landfall.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 27W from the
Cabo Verde islands near 17N southward, and is moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N
between 23W and 31W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 46W from 18N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 04N to 13N between 44W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed near 66W from 19N
southward into Venezuela, and is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 18N between
60W and 70W. Stronger thunderstorms might produce fresh gusty
winds across the Lesser Antilles.

Another Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 83W from
18N southward over Costa Rica, and is moving west at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident along the
coasts of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica mainly in association
with the monsoon trough and currently extending along 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 10N17W. Segments of the ITCZ continue westward from 10N17W to
07N22W, then resumes west of two tropical waves from 05N31W to
05N42W, and from 06N49W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection
described with the tropical waves in the section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 09N
between 30W to 35W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.

A surface trough extends northeastward from the Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three near, 22N92W. Fresh to strong winds
were detected by the latest scatterometer passes north of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N to 27N and east of 90W. Aided
by upper-level divergent flow, scattered to numerous moderate
convection is occurring from the Yucatan Channel north to
to the Florida Gulf coast near 29N and East of 90W. Scattered
showers are also noted along the western Gulf coast from 20N-25N
between 94W-97W.

A stationary front stretches westward across the northeastern
Gulf to the Texas coast. Scattered showers are possible along
the boundary. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted in the
northern Gulf north of 26N. In the Bay of Campeche, winds shift
cyclonically to S around the broad low pressure. Seas are mainly
in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft in the south-central Gulf and
southeast Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move
northward and become better organized overnight, and expected to
become a tropical depression Fri morning near 25.0N 92.4W, reach
27.2N 92.4W Fri evening as a tropical storm, then move inland
near 29.8N 91.1W Sat morning before accelerating off to the NE.
Majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and thunderstorms
are expected to occur north and east of Three. High pressure is
forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Three Sat
night into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Colombia west
Across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong
Convection is noted along the monsoon trough south of 11N between
75W to 81W. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is
noted from the Gulf of Honduras north along the Yucatan Channel
to
western Cuba.

Fresh to strong tradewinds were detected by the latest
scatterometer pass in the south central Caribbean. The strongest
winds extend from the coast of Colombia north to 16N between 70W
and 77W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the
basin. Seas of 4-6 ft throughout the basin, except 6-9 ft in the
area of strong winds off in the south central Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E central Atlc
W-SW to central Florida and will weaken north of the area through
Fri. This ridge will combine with lower pressure over Venezuela
and Colombia to support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras during the weekend and
through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades, scattered tstorms and
squalls will accompany a tropical wave along 67W tonight as it
moves W across the Caribbean through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Diffluent flow aloft continues to support scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic
mainly north of 25N and west of 66W. To the east, a surface ridge
dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by the
Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area. Fresh SW winds are
occurring in the W Atlantic north of 28N between 68W and 75W.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N west of 45W. Gentle
to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except from 18N to 24N
between the west coast of Africa and 24W where fresh N-NE winds
persist due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7 to 10
ft in this area of fresh winds. In the Bahamas, seas are 2-4 ft.
Outside of these areas, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the
waters south of 22N, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas north of 22N.

For the forecast west of 65W, Atlc high pressure will retreat
eastward tonight allowing a trough to move through the northern
forecast waters through Fri. High pressure will then return to the
area over the weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters
during the forecast period and over Puerto Rico adjacent waters
tonight.


$$
MTorres
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