[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Thu Jun 17 17:10:30 CDT 2021

WTUS84 KMOB 172210
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-180615-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL032021
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST. A MULTI-DAY HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS LIKELY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 600 miles south-southwest of Mobile AL or about 610 miles
      south-southwest of Pensacola FL
    - 22.9N 92.4W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 has developed over the southwestern Gulf
this afternoon and is expected to move north towards the Louisiana
coastline during the day on Friday. The storm is expected to slowly
organize and could become a Tropical Depression or Storm sometime on
Friday or Friday night before making landfall late Friday night. This
system is expected to encounter a fair amount of shear leading to most
of the impacts occurring east of the center over our area. The primary
threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall across the entire area
beginning Friday afternoon along the coast and moving inland throughout
the day. Heavy rainfall will likely persist through Saturday night with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher in excess of 10
inches. Tropical storm force winds will be possible along the immediate
coastline of Alabama with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere,
strong gusty winds just below Tropical Storm force will be possible.
Along with the rain and wind, a couple tornadoes could be possible
especially on Saturday. Finally, minor coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet
could be possible along areas of Mobile Bay and Coastal Alabama.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi..
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Coastal Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal Alabama including Mobile Bay. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across portions of coastal Northwest Florida Panhandle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

Black

$$
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