[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill, at 16/0300 UTC, is
near 43.5N 57.0W. BILL is moving toward the NE, 35 degrees, 25
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55
knots. BILL is about 290 nm/540 km to the east of Halifax in
Nova Scotia, and about 250 nm/470 km to the SW of Cape Race in
Newfoundland. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 240 nm to 420 nm from the center in the NE
semicircle. Please, refer to the latest watches and warnings
that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
Please, refer to the latest watches and warnings that are issued
by the Ocean Prediction Center, at www.ocean.weather.gov, for
marine information.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is in a few individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of
the 1009 mb low pressure center. This system is expected to move
little during the next day or so. Any development should be slow
to occur during that time period. The disturbance should begin
to move northward by Thursday. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form late in the week, when the low pressure moves
across the central or NW Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall will
continue in parts of Central America and southern Mexico, during
the next several days. It is possible also that the heavy rains
may begin to impact parts of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Please, consult all weather bulletins from your local
meteorological service for more information. The chance of
development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 17N
southward, moving W near 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 03N to 10N. No development of
this system is expected at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 09N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 17N
southward, moving W from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: no
significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to
the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 18N in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward. The tropical wave is
moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N
between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and beyond 12N93W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 81W and 90W. The 1009 mb low pressure
center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in a few
individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of the 1009 mb low
pressure center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from
11N18W, to 10N21W 08N29W 06N31W 01N39W 023N45W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere,
from 18N southward from 60W eastward. It is possible that some
of the remaining precipitation may be related to the tropical
waves also.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 70W and 91W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
SE Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel northward for 240 nm.
Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the
areas that are from 20N northward between 70W and 90W.

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is expected
to move little during the next day or so. Any development should
be slow to occur during that time period. The disturbance should
begin to move northward by Thursday. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form late in the week, when the low pressure
center moves across the central or NW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate-to-fresh NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea from 09N to 21N between 55W and 64W; the sea
heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet. Fresh-to-strong NE
winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela; the sea heights are reaching 6 feet. Fresh-to-strong
SE winds are from 21N southward from 82W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea; the sea heights are reaching 6 feet.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, and beyond 12N93W in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 18N in the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward. The tropical wave
is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 81W and 90W. The 1009 mb low pressure
center is near 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in a few
individual clusters: in the W and NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, in the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, and within 300 nm to the SSW of the 1009 mb low
pressure center.

A ridge of high pressure north of the basin, and lower pressure
in Central America and Colombia, will support pulsing fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N45W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to
30N between 33W and 57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 20N to 29N between 38W and 48W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N39W, to the NW Bahamas, and to south Florida.

Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 14N to 25N between 19W
and 40W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet.

A ridge of high pressure along 26N will prevail through
mid-week, before retreating eastward, through the end of the
week. The wind speeds will be fresh to strong to the north of
28N, through  mid-week, as two cold fronts pass to the north of
the area.

$$
mt/jl
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