[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141912
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021

Updated for Tropical Wave Along 14W in the E Atlantic

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is located near 35.0N 73.7W, or 90 nm E
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as of 1500 UTC. Sustained winds
are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the central pressure is 1006 mb.
Currently, the depression is moving NE at about 18 kt. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A large
mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should
cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but
faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the
system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Please refer to the latest
products issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For marine information,
please refer to products issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
www.ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 14W just
off the coast of Africa from 17N southward, moving W at around
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N
between the coast of Africa and 20W. This tropical wave has a low
chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five
days.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W and from 20N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No convection is noted near
the wave axis at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands is
near 61W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the wave axis west to 67W in the
eastern Caribbean.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W from 17N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the SW Caribbean and Central America south of 17N between 80W
and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near Guinea-
Bissau to 11N16W to 08N30W to 06N41W. The ITCZ then continues
from 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 04N to 12N
between 20W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1009 mb is centered near 19N95W over
the Bay of Campeche, accompanied by a surface trough extending
from 23N97W through the low to 19N91W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche south
of 22N. A surface trough extends from the northern Florida
Peninsula near 30N83W across the northern Gulf to 29N90W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of
this trough across the eastern Gulf. As of 1700 UTC, satellite
data indicates the outflow boundary has dissipated. A ridge of
high pressure extends from the SW N Atlantic across Cuba to the
across the central Gulf to the central Texas coast. Light to
gentle W winds are noted north of 25N, with light to gentle NE
south of 25N in the western Gulf, and light to gentle SE winds
south of 25N in the E Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less across the
basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico into mid-week, supporting mainly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a potential to slowly
develop during the next few days while it meanders near the coast
of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week
when the system begins to move slowly northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh to winds in
the S central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south central
Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. The eastern Pacific
extension of the monsoon trough stretches across central Costa
Rica to the SW Caribbean along 10N to northern Colombia.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between
the coast of Colombia and 78W.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras into the weekend. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of
11N. A tropical wave that entered the E Caribbean this morning
will cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western
Caribbean at the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Two.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend across the
Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. Ridging dominates the basin,
anchored by the Azores High north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are noted south of 22N and west of 40W, with gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere west of 35W. A tight
pressure gradient west of the African coast south of the Canary
Islands supports strong NE winds from 16N to 28N east of 25W. Seas
of 4 to 7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 7 to 10 ft seas
in the area of fresh to strong winds.

A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic
westward to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and
Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Two will move
northeast away from the area and the U.S. early this week. A ridge
of high pressure along 28N will sink southward and weaken today.
Winds will be fresh to locally strong north of 28N through the
early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of the
area.

$$
Mahoney
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