[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a well-
defined low pressure system located about 80 nm southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form later today or tonight.  This system is
expected to move northeastward away from the United States and
move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
ending any opportunity for further development by midweek. This
low has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation in the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website:
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For marine information,
please see products issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
www.ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 14W and inland
over west Africa from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 12N between 10W and 26W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W and from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is noted with this
wave however rain showers are likely from 07N to 16N between 28W
and 39W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted near the southern end of the wave from 02N to
07N between 31W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 58W
and 64W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W from 18N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Adjacent deep convection associated with
the eastern Pacific extension of the monsoon trough is described
below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
new to 07N35W to 04N45W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N45W to
the coast of South America near 04N51W. No additional convection
other than the convection described in the tropical waves section
above is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1010 mb is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 20N96W. A surface trough extends northward from
23N97W through the low to 18N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within 90-120 nm either side of the
trough. A surface trough extends from the northern Florida
Peninsula near 30N82W to across the northern Gulf near 28N86W,
continuing as an outflow boundary to near the Texas/Louisiana
border near 29N94W. A line of thunderstorms extends along the
outflow boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted ahead of the trough across the eastern Gulf and across
portions of the southern Florida Peninsula. A ridge of high
pressure extends from the SW N Atlantic across Cuba to the across
the central Gulf to the central Texas coast. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin. Seas are 3 ft or
less across the basin, except higher in and near any convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week
supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
basin. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a
potential to slowly develop during the next few days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could
form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly
northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the S
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted
elsewhere in the basin, except gentle to moderate in the lee of
Cuba and also in the SW Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
in the central Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Carribbean,
and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. The eastern Pacific extension
of the monsoon trough stretches across central Costa Rica to the
SW Caribbean along 11N to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between
73W and 84W.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of
11N. A tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean today and
cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean
at the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more details on a low
pressure system south of Cape Hatteras.

A stationary front extends from the 1008 mb low pressure north of
the area and south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.5N76W
to near the Georgia/Florida border. A pre-frontal trough reaches
from 32N77W to 29N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted north of
28N between 77W and 80W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms extend across the Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
A 1030 mb high pressure center is located north of the area near
Azores 40N27W with a ridge axis reaching well southwest-west
through 31N46W to near the Straits of Florida and central Cuba.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow is noted between 65W
and 77W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 22N and west
of 35W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere
between 35W and 65W. A tight pressure gradient is evident west of
the north coast of Africa and through the Canary Islands with
fresh to strong N-NE winds from 18N to 30N and east of 26N. Seas
of 4 to 7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 7 to 10 ft seas
in the area of fresh to strong winds.

A large area of Sahara dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward
to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and Sahara
Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward and weaken today. Winds will be fresh north of
28N through the early part of the week as pair of cold fronts
move by north of the area, except locally strong Tue through Wed.

$$
Lewitsky/Mahoney
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