[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from
15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-14N between
16W-23W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 14N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 40W-48W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from
17N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
noted in Hispaniola with no significant convection associated
with this wave at this time.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from
16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and
Senegal near 12N17W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to
07N38W to 04N44W, then continues W of a tropical wave near
04N45W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside of the
convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted near 03N-08N between
24W-30W and from 00N-06N between 47W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. There
is a trough over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to
18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
near this trough from 19N-24N between 92W-98W. There is another
trough from 25N83W to 22N87W with scattered thunderstorms noted
near it from 23N-24N between 85W-88W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf with light to
gentle SE winds in the western Gulf. Moderate SE winds are noted
along the Texas coast. Seas range 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough
of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the SW
Gulf. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it
drifts northwestward to northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted across Puerto Rico, Dominican
Republic, and Jamaica likely due to some upper level divergence.
Some convection over the Yucatan and Belize is reaching adjacent
waters. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most of
the Caribbean, with fresh winds noted in the south-central
portion of the basin in addition to locally fresh winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas range 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined
with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia is
contributing toward fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Tue night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N. A weak tropical wave over the W Caribbean is
helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms. A second
tropical wave over the central Caribbean has limited shower
activity associated with it. A third tropical wave will move into
the E Caribbean Mon through Tue night. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected over these waters for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is located from 28N58W to 20N64W with scattered showers
and thunderstorms within 90 nm of this feature. Otherwise, high
pressure ridging dominates the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted across most of the region. Moderate
southerly winds are noted near 31N between 70W-77W. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of Africa
E of 40W. Seas range 3-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, A ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a
fresh breeze north of 28N tonight through the weekend as a cold
front moves by north of the area. Winds and seas should be
quiescent across the waters on Mon and Tue. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected over these waters for the next several days.

$$
AReinhart
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