[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and in northern Colombia: A
broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. It
appears that significant development will be unlikely, as the
trough drifts west-northwestward or northwestward toward Central
America. It is possible that this weather system may produce
heavy rainfall, later this week and into the weekend, in
northern Colombia, and in parts of Central America from Honduras
southward. Please, read all the bulletins, and watch/warning
information, from your local meteorological service, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 13W/14W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N
between 07W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong from 01N to 10N between 25W
and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. An upper level
anticyclonic circulation center is along 08N/09N, about 240 nm
to the east of the tropical wave. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow surrounds the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area that is
from Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago to 18N between 54W and 67W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within a 60 nm radius of 12N
along the tropical wave.

A Central America tropical wave is along 88W from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in parts of Central America and
in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 12N to 16N
between 86W and 90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from
09N21W, to 07N30W, to 06N33W, 04N40W, and 03N46W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 20W and
22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N
southward between 25W and 43W. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 02N to 04N between 49W and 53W,
including in French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N96W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 85W
westward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm
off the coast of SW Florida, near 26N82W.

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N79W,
across northern Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico,
to the middle Gulf coast of Texas.

An inland diurnal surface trough passes through southern Mexico,
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: numerous strong covers parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico
between 89W and 94W, and in southern Mexico from 17N to 19N
between 97W and 100W.

Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Thu night off
the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail as weak high pressure settles over
the Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri. A frontal trough will sink
southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely
inducing moderate SW to W winds over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within a 60 nm radius of 12N
along the tropical wave.

A Central America tropical wave is along 88W from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in parts of Central America and
in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 12N to 16N
between 86W and 90W.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, through
11N80W, beyond 10N in Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, along the border of Colombia and
Venezuela from 09N to 10N, and between 77W and 79W at the coast
of Panama from 09N to 10N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
16N southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to
locally fresh trade winds tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle
to moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the SW Caribbean
through the remainder of this week in association with a broad
trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the
south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging
becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh
winds will continue over the central Caribbean through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N46W, to 30N79W,
just to the east of Florida.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE winds are
from 03N to 13N between 44W and 55W.  The sea heights range from
7 feet to 8 feet in that area.

Gentle to moderate winds will continue through Thu night as high
pressure ridging prevails over the area. Fresh E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage this evening.
A frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area late
Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect
fresh to potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N,
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
MT/AH
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