[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The monsoon trough, a tropical wave, and an upper level trough
will together enhance rainfall between southern Nicaragua and
Costa Rica to NW Colombia over the next few days.  Please, see
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is currently analyzed along 18W
from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave
axis from 02N-07N between 12W-24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted near the wave axis at
this time.

A tropical wave is over the Windward Islands along 61W from 15N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.  The wave is enhancing some
convective activity over the Windward Islands and eastern
Venezuela where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is note.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave, that extends into western
Colombia,  combined with the monsoon trough, which passes
through Panama, is enhancing convection over the SW Caribbean
and parts of northern Colombia, particularly  south of 13N
between 73W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 05N24W. The ITCZ then
extends from 05N24W to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is
from the equator to 07N between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico, with no
convection noted at this time. Recent observations depict moderate
to fresh SE to S winds throughout the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft in
the NW Gulf and the Straits of Florida, with 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the
NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By
midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high
pressure over the W Atlantic weakens. Weak high pressure will
spread over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining
tranquil conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves
section for more information on  possible heavy rain in Colombia
and the south central Caribbean.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW
to Costa Rica. This feature supports scattered moderate
convection over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds prevail over the basin, with locally strong winds
found off the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 6-8 ft in the
eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the
central Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight.
High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure
weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected
in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an
upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. The
convection is expected to migrate to the central and SW Caribbean
mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the section above for information on tropical waves
moving across tropical Atlantic.

An upper level low is near 26N29W, about 650 nm W of the Canary
Islands. Cloudiness and possible light showers are east of the
this upper-low, extending to the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco.

The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W
westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data
from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of
25N with mainly fresh trade winds south of 25N across the basin.
Seas are 7-9 ft across the tropical Atlantic south of 27N. Seas
are 3-6 ft from 26N-31N.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will
become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens and
continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon and Tue
evening. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Wed through Fri
for this area.

$$
Mahoney/GR
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