[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 0N to 12N with axis near 29W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the wave axis mainly S of 05N.  The wave is embedded in a very
dry air and dusty enviroment associated with the Saharan Air
Layer, which is hindering the development of strong convection.

A tropical wave is from 04N to 15N with axis near 50W, moving
westward at around 15 kt. The wave is at the edge of a Saharan
Air Layer outbreak, however, the wave is embedded in a strong
wind shear environment, which is limiting the convection to
scattered moderate from 05N to 10N between 50W and 55W.

A tropical wave is south of 15N with axis near 71W, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Shallow moisture and middle to upper
level diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection over
the central and eastern Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
14N17W to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N32W and continues
along 04N40W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 08N west of 21W. Otherwise, numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is just off the coast of west Africa
from 01N to 10N between 04W and 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level diffluent flow between an upper-level low over the
Texas-Oklahoma border and an upper-level high over the Gulf of
Mexico along with abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean is
supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms over Louisiana and
Mississippi adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data showed
gale force winds in the area of the convection and dense fog has
been reported as well. Moderate to locally fresh return flow is
elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, an upper-level low over Texas may enhance
scattered showers and tstms over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico today. Otherwise, high pressure over the Atlc will cause
moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue
night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue
night, off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a
diurnal trough. Winds across the basin will diminish to gentle
to moderate E to SE mid to late week as high pressure over the W
Atlc weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores high and a tropical
wave moving across the central Caribbean is supporting fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean as indicated by
scatterometer data. Diffluence to the east of the base of an
upper level trough along with shallow moisture supports
scattered showers and isolated tstms over the central and
eastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds
are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras at night, tonight and Mon
night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon
night. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek. An
enhancement of showers and tstms is expected in the eastern
Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of a quasi-
stationary upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores high dominates
the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern
Atlantic veer to mainly E in the central Atlantic and then to SE
in the western Atlantic. Seas are 8-9 ft from 13N-21N east of
40W. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft
seas west of 78W. Seas are also 3-5 ft north of 28N, where winds
are weaker closer to the subtropical ridge.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north
of the area through Tue. This will support moderate to fresh E
to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through
Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the
high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon
and evening hours through Mon night.

For the forecast east of 65W, the weakening Bermuda-Azores high
will allow a relaxation of the trades by late Wed or Thu.
Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the
tropical N Atlantic by Thu.

$$
Ramos
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