[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W from 11N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the wave axis mainly S of 05N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 05N-15N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. This wave has a classic inverted-V
pattern on satellite imagery, and TPW distinctly shows the
moisture bulge. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly
affecting western Venezuela, NE Colombia and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 06N47W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150
nm N and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated tstorms seen currently over the NW
and north-central Gulf of Mexico are being supported by an upper-
level low centered over NE Texas and abundant moist, deep-layered
southerly flow. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh SE winds across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of
the central Gulf, and less than 3 ft in the SW and NE corners of
the basin.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico will continue through today.
Otherwise, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause moderate to
locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Winds
across the basin will diminish to gentle to moderate E to SE mid
to late week as high pressure over the W Atlc weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the southern
portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for
details.

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic to
Hispaniola to Panama. To the east of the upper-trough axis,
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are occurring over the
eastern half of the basin, mainly east of 71W. Scattered tstorms
are also seen in between Jamaica and the Windward Passage. The
monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is enhancing scattered showers
and tstorms within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and
southern Nicaragua.

A moderate pressure gradient across the basin is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, including
near the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. There is also an area
of fresh winds prevailing over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the E
Caribbean, 7-9 ft in the south-central basin, and 3-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras at night, tonight and
Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon
night. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek. An
enhancement of showers and tstms is expected to persist in the
eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of a quasi-
stationary upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores high dominates
the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern
Atlantic veer to mainly E in the central Atlantic and then to SE
in the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient off the coast of
Mauritania and Western Sahara supports fresh to strong winds from
19N to 24N between 17W and 21W. Seas are 8-9 ft from 13N-21N east
of 40W. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft
seas west of 78W. Seas are also 3-5 ft north of 28N, where winds
are weaker closer to the subtropical ridge.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through Tue. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE
trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By
midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure
weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and
in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening
hours through Mon night.

For the forecast east of 65W, the weakening Bermuda-Azores high
will allow a relaxation of the trades by late Wed or Thu.
Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the
tropical N Atlantic by Thu.

$$
Hagen
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