[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23.5W from 11N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 23W and 28W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 09W from 14N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 42W and 48W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. No convection is occurring near
the tropical wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 04N21W. The ITCZ then extends from 02N25W to coastal
Brazil near 03N51W. Near the monsoon trough, an area of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 14W and 20W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the north central Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough extends from
the Mississippi coast near 30N88W to 27N92W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring with this trough from 25N
to the Gulf coast between 88W and 92W. In the Bay of Campeche, a
surface trough extends from Veracruz, Mexico to 24N94W and is
producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 93N between
93W and 95W. Elsewhere, high pressure ridging prevails, supporting
gentle SE to S winds across the Gulf. The exception is just north
of the Yucatan, where the latest scatterometer data shows
moderate SE winds. Seas are 1-3 ft throughout the basin except in
the E Bay of Campeche, the central Gulf, and the SE Gulf, where
seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through Wed with winds becoming light to gentle by the
end of the week. An upper- level low over western Texas will
continue to enhance convection over the N Gulf waters today and
spread to the north- central Gulf by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and a
1009 mb Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds
in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. From the
coast of Colombia to 15N, seas are 6-8 ft. In the western
Caribbean, gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail with 2-5 ft seas
north of 28N and 4-6 ft seas south of 28N. Scattered moderate
convection is present from the coast of Venezuela to 15N between
59W and 65W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over
the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun
night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will
continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of
the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek, gentle to
moderate trade winds will prevail. An increase in showers and
thunderstorms can be expected in the eastern Caribbean through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High dominates the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Moderate NE winds in the eastern Atlantic
veer to mainly moderate E in the central Atlantic and then to
gentle SE in the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient off the
coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara supports strong winds from
19N to 24N between 17W and 21W with 8-9 ft seas. Seas are 5-7 ft
elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft seas west of 78W.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will
support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle
to moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon.

For the forecast east of 65W, a weakening Bermuda-Azores High will
allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise,
seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N
Atlantic by Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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