[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N
to 08N between 31W and 34W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with this tropical wave from the equator to
11N between 53W and 62W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 77W, from 13N southward, moving
westward at around 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and continues over the E Atlantic to 05N19W to
05N25W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 05N25W to 05N30W, and
from 05N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection exists from 01N to 07N between 10W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to be observed across the Gulf of Mexico. In
the S Gulf, a weak trough is analyzed along 92W from 18N to 22N.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly
in the N Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the Bay of Campeche, with
1-3 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is evident
in the W Gulf from 22N to 26N between 95W and 97W.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east
winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. An upper-
level low over Texas will enhance showers and tstorms this weekend
near the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered
moderate convection near Guantanamo Bay, with scattered showers
over the remainder of the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from the Coast of Panama
north to 11N between 77W and 84W. Recent observations show fresh
to locally strong trade winds off the coast of central Colombia,
where seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are noted in the remainder of the basin, with 4 to 6
ft seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure centered SW of the
Azores and a 1029 mb high pressure ENE of Bermuda. Gentle to moderate
winds veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central
Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours.

$$
Mahoney
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