[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W/32W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W/58W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted with this tropical wave from 07N to 09N between 56W and
59W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 76W, from 13N southward, moving
westward at around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted near
this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near
13N16W to 09N20W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 09N20W to
05N30W, and from 05N35W to 03N51W. Other than the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is active from 01N to 04N between 15W and 25W, and from
01N to 03N between 35W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1017
mb high pressure off the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W,
to the central coast of Texas. Farther south, weak troughing is
noted over the east-central Gulf off Florida, and over the
southwest Gulf along 95W south of 23N. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds
over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate
easterly breezes persist elsewhere, with 1 to 3 ft seas in most
areas. Smoke from forecast fires and agricultural burning may be
limiting visibility slightly off the southern coast of Veracruz in
the far southwest Gulf. Scattered showers are evident from
northeast Mexico along the coast of Tamaulipas, to the north-
central Gulf off the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Scattered showers are also noted over the southeast Gulf, from
Straits of Florida across the Lower Florida Keys to off Tampa,
Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh northeast to east
winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the Windward Passage, between northern
Haiti and eastern Cuba. A few showers are also noted between
central Panama and southeast Nicaragua, mainly due to trade wind
convergence. Ship observations and an earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds off the coast
of central Colombia, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft
seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next several nights. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered west the
Azores near 38N31W. This pattern is supporting generally moderate
E to NE winds west of 35W, except for moderate to fresh winds off
northeast Florida, and pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola,
south of 15N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of 35W in open
waters. Farther east, a weakening stationary front is analyzed
from Spain to the Canary Islands. Fresh NE winds winds and 6 to 8
ft seas are evident north of this boundary. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate N to NE winds are noted, except for fresh N winds off
Mauritania, with 5 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours. Elsewhere west of
35W, little change is expected.

$$
Christensen
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