[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 06W and 22W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over
Venezuela and NW Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near
05N23W to 07N35W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 08N between 32W and 40W. Similar convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary ahead of a cold front
located over South Texas has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of
95W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails allowing for moderate E
winds across most of the basin. ASCAT data notes fresh winds
west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west
of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Colombia into the
east Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
associated with the monsoon trough is in the SW Caribbean, south
of 11N and east of 78W. The pressure gradient between higher
pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south
central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds are over the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail
across the western Atlc through the week. This will support
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the NW Bahamas to
24N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 1800 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of
3-4 ft are found west of the trough. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1032 mb high
pressure near 36N53W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
forecast waters west of 40W, while gentle to moderate winds are
east of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 60W. East of
60W, seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate
today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week.
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of
the forecast waters Wed through Sat.

$$
Mora
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