[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France
marine areas of Agadir and Canary Islands is in effect through
at least 01/1200 UTC. N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort
Scale and 8-12 ft seas are expected. Please see the High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 30W from 21N
southward. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 12N between
24W and 35W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 02N to 08N between 35W and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 19N
southward into W Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection
is noted with the wave at this time.

Another Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N30W to 06N39W. There are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed
in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the showers noted in
the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
noted near the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
20N95W inland over Veracruz and Chiapas, Mexico to 17N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the W Bay of Campeche
from 23N south and west of 93W. An area of scattered moderate
convection is noted in the north central Gulf, from 28N to the
US coast between 86W and 90W. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed
in the central Gulf near 25N90W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
flow prevails over the Gulf, except in the eastern Bay of
Campeche where E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 1-3 ft
throughout the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to locally moderate
Return flow will prevail across the basin through the forecast
period. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will
pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every
night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical high and East
Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
trades in the west-central Caribbean, with seas of 6-10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection associated with the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough is noted in the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate
trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas in the E Caribbean and 3-6 ft
seas in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the
northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds in the central and portions of the SW basin through
Mon night when the ridge will weaken slightly. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will dominate elsewhere through the forecast
period. A tropical wave crossing Central America will continue to
support scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras
through Sun morning. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across the
central basin will support scattered showers across Hispaniola
and Jamaica tonight and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section for information on the
East Atlantic Gale Warning.

An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A trough is analyzed in the
central Atlantic from 23N48W to 18N46W with no significant
convection noted at this time. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong NE winds from 25N to 31N east of 18W, surrounding the
aforementioned gale warned area. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails. Seas are 3-5 ft in
tropical Atlantic west of 70W, and 5-7 ft in the remainder of the
discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, The Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge across the region and support moderate to fresh E
winds S of 24N and S to SW winds of the same magnitude N of 28N
through the forecast period. Otherwise, scattered showers are
expected over the NW offshore waters through early next week.

$$
Torres
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