[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for
the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in
effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to 0000 UTC Aug 1 at least. See the
Metarea II forecast from Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 14N,
and moving W around 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and
dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea, positioned near the
Lesser Antilles, with its axis along 61W, south of 19N. This wave
is moving W around 15 kt. No convection is associated with the
wave at this time.

Another Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, extending
from 20N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving W at
around 5-10 kts. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 100
nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 17W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the border of Senegal and The
Gambia near 17N17W to 07N38W. At this time, there are no segments
of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 23W and 36W. Another
area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N
east of 20W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward across
the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening outflow boundary is racing
westward across the Bay of Campeche as an area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish behind it. The rest of the
Gulf enjoys tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations and
a recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh N to
NE breezes in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere in the Gulf,
light to gentle breezes prevail. Seas 1-3 ft in the eastern Bay
of Campeche and 1-2 ft in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region during
the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the
Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is
supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass shows moderate to fresh
E trades in the NE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in
the basin, gentle to moderate breezes are noted. Seas are 6-8 ft
over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Dry air prevails
across the basin, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Expect trades to become
fresh to locally strong Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system positioned near the
Azores dominates the Tropical Atlantic and provides for fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from 19N45W
to 25N47W, but it is not producing significant convection. Recent
scatterometer satellite data show fresh trades north of
Puerto Rico. Elsewhere in the basin, the ridge is supporting
moderate or weaker winds. Seas are 4-6 ft south of 20N and 3-5 ft
north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N
will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally
strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night
just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh
south to southwest winds are expected off the NE Florida waters
Sun night through Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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