[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 18N southward and
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 05N-09N between 26W-33W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 19N southward
and moving west around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
currently in association with the wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 17N southward across
N Venezuela, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Aided by divergent
flow related to an upper-level low just northwest of Puerto
Rico, scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-15N between
60W-65W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 13N southward
through E Panama into the Pacific Ocean, and moving west near 10
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
across Panama and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the coast of Mauritania at
18N17W to 05N40W. There is no coherent ITCZ at this time west of
the monsoon trough.  In addition to the convection associated
with the tropical wave near 29W, scattered moderate convection
exists from 05N-12N east of 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is noted from 21N96W to 26N94W.  The diurnal
trough is seen in the SW Gulf from 20N92W to 21N90W. Isolated
moderate convection exists west of 92W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 27N east of 87W. Elsewhere surface
ridging extends westward across Florida and into the E Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh SE winds are occurring over the SW Gulf, while
tranquil conditions prevail elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough drifting west across the NW
Gulf is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The trough will drift over the NW Gulf through
this evening while gradually weakening. In its wake, the
Atlantic high pressure ridge will begin to build westward into
the Gulf waters later today, with a high pressure cell
developing over the E central Gulf. This high will drift
westward and dominate the Gulf region during the upcoming
weekend then reorganize over the E Gulf late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate north-south pressure gradient between ridging north
of the Caribbean and lower pressure over N South America is
contributing toward fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S
central Caribbean and just south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere the
trades are gentle to fresh. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the W
Caribbean. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves near 65W and 79W, no significant deep convection is
observed.

For the forecast, freshening tradewinds are expected across E
and central portions of the Caribbean through tonight as the
Atlantic ridge builds modestly across the W Atlantic. Fresh to
strong trades will prevail across south central portions as well
as the south central coast of Hispaniola through Sun night
before the ridge begins to weaken. Strong winds to around 30 kt
are expected at night near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela Fri night through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for convection across the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwest from the 1028 mb
Azores High across W central Atlantic to Florida. The ridge is
sustaining light to gentle trades across all of the waters,
except for fresh SE winds just north of Hispaniola. Seas are 6-7
ft south of 22N and 4-5 ft north of 22N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 30N between 65W-75W in association
with a sharp upper-level trough.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the
forecast waters through the period, while a surface trough will
remain over or just off the coast of the SE United States.
Expect fresh to locally strong easterly winds late afternoon
through the night just off the N coast of Hispaniola, including
approaches to the Windward Passage, most of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected across the far NW
waters Sun night through Mon night.


$$

Landsea
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