[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 mb low is centered near 30N80.5W. Satellite and radar data
indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the low
remain around the periphery of the central circulation, and about
90 to 120 nm from the center. Environmental conditions are
gradually becoming less conducive for the development of a
tropical depression before the low moves inland over NE Florida or
Georgia today. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of this system as associated thunderstorm activity
could produce heavy rain, strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 05N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the
south from 05N to 11N between Africa and 22W.

A Caribbean tropical wave along 61W south of 13N moving west at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across
the central Lesser Antilles, and trails the wave along the ITCZ
between 56W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from western Hispaniola to
northeast Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. The majority of moisture
and energy accompanying this wave has moved northwestward and
across the Atlantic waters east of 75W, as far north as 30N. The
remaining portion of the tropical wave across the Caribbean has
moved under an upper-level low centered off northern Haiti. Dry,
subsident air in the northerly flow on the west side of this upper
low, along with lingering, dry Saharan air, is inhibiting
convection north of 15N near the tropical wave. However, scattered
clusters of moderate to strong convection are occurring south of
15N to coastal Colombia from 72W to 79W, and is being enhanced by
an upper level jet south of the upper level low.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba to
Costa Rica, moving W at 10 kt. Convection associated with this
wave is confined to near the monsoon trough, S of 12N and is
described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from
08N42W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted along the monsoon and ITCZ E of 60W. The eastern Pacific
monsoon trough extends from off the coast of Colombia near 12N73W
to near the Costa Rica/Panama border near 09N82W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of this
monsoon trough axis, with the threat for heavy rainfall in the
southwest Caribbean gradually winding down tonight.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Fort Meyers, Florida to the
central Gulf near 24N90W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms dot the waters south of the trough. To the north,
overnight scatterometer data indicates elongated high pressure
extends across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas generally prevail across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist south
of the trough through tonight as if drifts westward. Weak high
pressure will remain just north of the basin to maintain generally
tranquil marine conditions. Atlantic high pressure will begin to
build westward into the Gulf basin Wed and Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on
convection across the Caribbean Basin.

The risk of flooding over the southwest Caribbean has diminished.
However, there are still lingering scattered showers and tstorms
in the area with less areal coverage compared to the previous days.
Light SE winds and slight seas are noted over the northwest
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
elsewhere. The trade wind flow is lighter than usual, related in
part to a relatively weaker subtropical ridge north of the area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin today will become
moderate to fresh on Tue. The exception will be moderate to
locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will
increase across the E and central Caribbean Wed night into Fri as
the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving
westward across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the low
east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on
the wave off the African coast.

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in intensity and
coverage during the past few hours, from Puerto Rico northward,
and is now more widely scattered and between 64W and 71W. This
activity is a result of tropical wave moisture and energy that
has moved northwestward across the NE Caribbean and into the
Atlantic during the past 48 hours and interacted with an upper
low over the Turks/Caicos Islands. A surface trough is analyzed
from 18N to 30N between 45W and 50W. The trough are south of a
1022 mb high pressure near 35N61W. Overnight scatterometer data
indicated moderate to fresh SE winds between 60W and the Bahamas,
where seas have diminished to 5 to 7 ft. Similarly moderate to
fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely between the trough and
the ridge, from 25N to 31N between 30W and 46W. Aside from fresh
to strong winds near the Cape Verde Islands and off Morocco, this
pattern is support generally moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas across the basin.

The low pressure offshore of northern Florida will move ashore
today across NE Florida or Georgia. The persistent elongated area
of showers and thunderstorms east of 75W will continue to spread
north and northwestward and weaken through tonight. A broad
inverted trough will enter the SE waters Tue night and move
westward and across the Bahamas through Thu night.

$$
Stripling
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